Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5f35460f69b6ddfeb96ab7b1e467c618dedb4f4de973cdfe068ada71ece8ae0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,048
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,048 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 7c | 3,989$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.09 | 356 | 29.8%106 W · 250 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 1c | 2,793$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 308 | 24.4%75 W · 233 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,320$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.13 | 731 | 38.7%283 W · 448 L | +36.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 5c | 1,300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 611 | 22.7%139 W · 472 L | +13.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,261$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.14 | 1,000 | 14.8%148 W · 852 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 4c | 1,068$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 570 | 36.7%209 W · 361 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc9…9ec4backed Yes | 13c | 851.82$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.66 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 6c | 665.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 501 | 23.8%119 W · 382 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 7c | 611.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 1,615 | 23.9%386 W · 1,229 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 6c | 558.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 1,370 | 20.7%283 W · 1,087 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa61…97dabacked Yes | 8c | 493.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 10c | 470.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 181 | 26.5%48 W · 133 L | +12.3wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 4c | 469.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 1,330 | 34.1%453 W · 877 L | +45.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 3c | 409.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 1,458 | 27.8%406 W · 1,052 L | +77.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…b0c7backed Yes | 10c | 378.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +125.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 8c | 322.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 522 | 22.4%117 W · 405 L | +27.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +21%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 8c | 304.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 10c | 293.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 234 | 42.7%100 W · 134 L | +18.1wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 7c | 289.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 241 | 60.2%145 W · 96 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 8c | 199.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 214 | 32.7%70 W · 144 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 7c | 191.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 426 | 30.3%129 W · 297 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 7c | 172.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 542 | 38.9%211 W · 331 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0e…a5ccbacked Yes | 11c | 144.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab5c…c6f3backed Yes | 7c | 142.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…eab2backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 12c | 89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 596 | 25%149 W · 447 L | -19.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.