Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf99cab5b372bb504399c94170ee4575019d702edeb2e81b94b17733a5a8a2779
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Yes | 25c | 2,657$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.43 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8130…5a50backed Yes | 56c | 1,387$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.34 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed No | 57c | 1,108$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.18 | 127 | 48%61 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 60c | 971.12$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.26 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 59c | 696.29$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.7 | 174 | 48.3%84 W · 90 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 43c | 589.99$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.18 | 731 | 38.7%283 W · 448 L | +36.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 19c | 561.07$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.96 | 308 | 24.4%75 W · 233 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed Yes | 40c | 530.48$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.84 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 36c | 506.99$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.2 | 100 | 31%31 W · 69 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 47c | 457.02$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.1 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 61c | 415.75$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.45 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa16…b066backed No | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8a…6cf4backed No | 56c | 398.24$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.49 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e37…a7d5backed Yes | 35c | 392.51$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed Yes | 40c | 371.45$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.58 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…bad5backed Yes | 4c | 370$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 363.18$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.82 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 34c | 330.33$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.31 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 303.2$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.96 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 33c | 302.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.82 | 1,615 | 23.9%386 W · 1,229 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 39c | 302$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.21 | 501 | 23.8%119 W · 382 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 33c | 299.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 474 | 33.1%157 W · 317 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf97d…85ddbacked No | 65c | 299.99$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 60c | 261.15$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.65 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 71c | 253$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.55 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0e…a5ccbacked Yes | 53c | 242.97$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.74 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d6…11adbacked Yes | 41c | 241.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 48c | 240.21$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.2 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 59c | 237.75$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.45 | 596 | 25%149 W · 447 L | -19.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 40c | 223.59$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.49 | 1,156 | 31.1%359 W · 797 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 48c | 205.22$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.53 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 13c | 201.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 181 | 26.5%48 W · 133 L | +12.3wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 221 | 16.7%37 W · 184 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 45c | 190$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.2 | 493 | 32.9%162 W · 331 L | +23.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 58c | 179.75$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.05 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 47c | 173.72$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.57 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed Yes | 34c | 172.76$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 227 | 48.9%111 W · 116 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e93…0a5cbacked Yes | 57c | 171.91$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f2…c000backed Yes | 29c | 170.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 73c | 168.87$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.34 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 55c | 168.14$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.4 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 37c | 161.53$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.3 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 62c | 161.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.06 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a1…fb15backed Yes | 40c | 154.21$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…66b0backed Yes | 36c | 151.71$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.79 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 28c | 151$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 364 | 22.8%83 W · 281 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 52c | 149.09$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.93 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 59c | 147.88$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.92 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 51c | 147.68$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.4 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 48c | 145.02$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.55 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c43…1608backed No | 69c | 144.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.77 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 53c | 141.32$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.62 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…739abacked Yes | 23c | 140$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +99.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 49c | 133.84$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 37c | 130.07$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 474 | 36.7%174 W · 300 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 49c | 128.98$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.78 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 29c | 120$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 183 | 24%44 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Yes | 48c | 118.01$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.58 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 48c | 110.42$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.38 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 59c | 110.39$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 102.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 201 | 45.3%91 W · 110 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 241 | 60.2%145 W · 96 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4351…5463backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 599 | 21.5%129 W · 470 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…b9bcbacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…f73cbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…f6edbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 151 | 33.1%50 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7b…9ab9backed Yes | 54c | 92.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -4.5wins | -0.30per pick | 70cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…c09ebacked Yes | 24c | 87.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…a5f9backed Yes | 47c | 79.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb96a…74d8backed Yes | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7637…92d3backed Yes | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 3,126 | 61.8%1,931 W · 1,195 L | -30.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 30c | 67.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 60c | 66.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5673…32babacked Yes | 35c | 63.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +41%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 58.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 58.24$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 47c | 58.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,080 | 38%410 W · 670 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 62c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 2,043 | 61.7%1,261 W · 782 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0b…72c6backed Yes | 56c | 50.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 126 | 26.2%33 W · 93 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 1,330 | 34.1%453 W · 877 L | +45.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…fc0fbacked Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 111 | 47.7%53 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 164 | 36%59 W · 105 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c3…fb70backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 512 | 35.9%184 W · 328 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 42c | 47.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa3…8eddbacked No | 53c | 46.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 37c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 136 | 48.5%66 W · 70 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 39c | 46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 202 | 34.7%70 W · 132 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 64c | 45.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0732…4098backed Yes | 58c | 45.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 269 | 60.2%162 W · 107 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.