TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 21?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,308
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,444

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,308 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xad50…3122backed Yes6c1,931$118 inLost-$118.2750123.8%119 W · 382 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdff5…7bd9backed Yes12c1,743$208 inLost-$207.663040%12 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+2.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes9c1,724$156 inLost-$155.872,29917.8%409 W · 1,890 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes8c1,706$139 inLost-$139.371,61523.9%386 W · 1,229 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes3c1,607$44 inLost-$43.8430824.4%75 W · 233 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-28.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes14c1,239$179 inLost-$179.0473138.7%283 W · 448 L+36.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes4c925.66$33 inLost-$32.66,16649.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L-117.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabd3…a0a2backed Yes18c808.42$145 inLost-$145933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d4b…66b0backed Yes5c748.85$36 inLost-$36.125812.1%7 W · 51 L-6.9wins-0.12per pick24cpaid-31.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9053…fb1cbacked Yes8c722.31$54 inLost-$54.56933.3%23 W · 46 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdadb…1870backed Yes6c623.01$35 inLost-$34.7761122.7%139 W · 472 L+13.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes7c599.89$44 inLost-$44.3836422.8%83 W · 281 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes4c503.51$19 inLost-$18.843,93923.2%913 W · 3,026 L+125.2wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e42…4938backed Yes7c457.27$34 inLost-$33.5542630.3%129 W · 297 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes3c433.32$13 inLost-$131,37020.7%283 W · 1,087 L+31.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes10c397.24$40 inLost-$40.3459625%149 W · 447 L-19.5wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes12c381.66$46 inLost-$45.7451235.9%184 W · 328 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes8c374.21$31 inLost-$31.3992145.6%420 W · 501 L-29.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd394…7e90backed Yes5c344.99$16 inLost-$16.05649.4%6 W · 58 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+50%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4309…7456backed Yes12c310.46$38 inLost-$38.2518126.5%48 W · 133 L+12.3wins+0.07per pick20cpaid-2.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes5c299.99$16 inLost-$161,45827.8%406 W · 1,052 L+77.6wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes10c260.82$27 inLost-$26.89938.4%38 W · 61 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes6c240.96$15 inLost-$15.191,33034.1%453 W · 877 L+45.7wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc8d…3257backed Yes8c221.49$18 inLost-$17.7121423.8%51 W · 163 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes10c204.78$20 inLost-$19.93,72533.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L-194.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd37…9135backed Yes8c201.07$17 inLost-$1723237.5%87 W · 145 L+30.6wins+0.13per pick24cpaid+79.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes6c200$11 inLost-$1138131%118 W · 263 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes5c200$10 inLost-$10.531132.2%100 W · 211 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes5c200$11 inLost-$1115133.1%50 W · 101 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87c8…e0a9backed Yes11c168.83$18 inLost-$17.751915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-66.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes9c159.24$15 inLost-$14.9515253.9%82 W · 70 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes13c152.13$20 inLost-$19.6416033.1%53 W · 107 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes7c150.88$11 inLost-$11.167,2339.3%675 W · 6,558 L-1,116.1wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.8%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xe72b…3c9cbacked Yes16c150$24 inLost-$23.877744.2%34 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x93cc…454ebacked Yes12c142.65$17 inLost-$17.4530041%123 W · 177 L+26.5wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+27.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x72ed…203abacked Yes14c129.98$18 inLost-$18.24050%20 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes12c108.2$13 inLost-$12.9848039.8%191 W · 289 L+31.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+34.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe2bd…eab2backed Yes14c100$14 inLost-$145911.9%7 W · 52 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-55.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b0c…6b23backed Yes14c91.31$13 inLost-$13.051758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick43cpaid-0.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No76c50$38 inWon+$122,17653.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L+36.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No71c30$21 inWon+$8.76,90553.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L+422.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.