Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32d88b388b364fdfd4d4f60cb93c303f105a6edccfe1246376b811b5e7b951d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 33c | 3,957$1,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,645.98 | 356 | 29.8%106 W · 250 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed Yes | 67c | 1,965$1,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.07 | 227 | 48.9%111 W · 116 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 8c | 1,769$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.86 | 731 | 38.7%283 W · 448 L | +36.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 3c | 1,629$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed No | 13c | 1,544$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.58 | 364 | 22.8%83 W · 281 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 67c | 1,324$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.71 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8130…5a50backed Yes | 78c | 755.31$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.01 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed No | 10c | 599.97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 274 | 28.5%78 W · 196 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 47c | 574.65$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.85 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 35c | 530.62$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.89 | 570 | 36.7%209 W · 361 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 44c | 492.23$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.16 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 459.76$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.88 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 22c | 445.28$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.11 | 501 | 23.8%119 W · 382 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 413.49$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.19 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 4c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,458 | 27.8%406 W · 1,052 L | +77.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 393.2$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.87 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 380.19$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.61 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb99b…b581backed No | 69c | 335.56$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.54 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f2…c000backed Yes | 22c | 321.78$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.78 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b16…29e2backed Yes | 33c | 315.13$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.79 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b0…adaabacked No | 73c | 305.15$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 40c | 280.4$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.24 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 30c | 271.79$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc9…9ec4backed Yes | 29c | 250$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.55 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 38c | 222.45$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.38 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 45c | 214.44$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.55 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…739abacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.05 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +99.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…b9bcbacked Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 60c | 192.23$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.08 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 28c | 185.2$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.75 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 40c | 180.57$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.12 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 9c | 180$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked No | 73c | 177.58$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.43 | 87 | 63.2%55 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 55c | 177.17$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.01 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 73c | 161.68$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.51 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed No | 31c | 160$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07cc…c67abacked Yes | 37c | 156.07$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.71 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 55c | 150.97$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.54 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 67c | 149.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.49 | 1,083 | 65.6%710 W · 373 L | -16.5wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 144.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.07 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…b70cbacked Yes | 36c | 142.49$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.07 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed Yes | 27c | 140$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.2 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 20c | 132.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.06 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 71c | 127.02$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.79 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 47c | 122.67$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.63 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc4…c720backed Yes | 29c | 120.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.95 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0e…a5ccbacked Yes | 31c | 110.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.33 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…fc0fbacked No | 39c | 110$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.34 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 27c | 109.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.43 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 108.15$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.81 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 29c | 100.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 2,240 | 49.3%1,104 W · 1,136 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4351…5463backed Yes | 28c | 100.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.92 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 201 | 45.3%91 W · 110 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 493 | 32.9%162 W · 331 L | +23.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 522 | 22.4%117 W · 405 L | +27.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +21%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…f6edbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4710…4839backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6e…2c19backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.99 | 599 | 21.5%129 W · 470 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 241 | 60.2%145 W · 96 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…8eb6backed No | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…bad5backed No | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc18…f73cbacked Yes | 24c | 99.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.98 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef6…92e4backed Yes | 60c | 99.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.78 | 3,835 | 61.1%2,345 W · 1,490 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 28c | 97.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.63 | 1,080 | 38%410 W · 670 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…b102backed Yes | 36c | 94.92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 65c | 93.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.38 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc90c…9bb7backed No | 71c | 91.19$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.02 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 29c | 90.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.55 | 290 | 43.8%127 W · 163 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c3…fb70backed Yes | 20c | 89.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 34c | 89.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.07 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 54c | 89.42$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa61…97dabacked Yes | 26c | 87.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.61 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07f5…d680backed No | 73c | 84.81$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 27 | 81.5%22 W · 5 L | +6.1wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 19c | 81.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.39 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 75.88$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.92 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked Yes | 22c | 73.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.89 | 120 | 25.8%31 W · 89 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 16c | 68.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1,000 | 14.8%148 W · 852 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 28c | 65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 63.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0732…4098backed Yes | 22c | 60.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.11 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032f…057ebacked Yes | 38c | 60.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 73c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 1,554 | 56.7%881 W · 673 L | -83.6wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb216…e994backed Yes | 38c | 59.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd2…3daebacked No | 69c | 59.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 32c | 59.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc40…c5bbbacked Yes | 36c | 59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.02 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 32c | 54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 29c | 53.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 45c | 52.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 36c | 52.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 52c | 52.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ed…203abacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 164 | 36%59 W · 105 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ef…91fdbacked No | 74c | 46.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d39…e6f6backed No | 76c | 46.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.