Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x267496fc5f8978b27f8addae1a28b353a5c707f1c952d702c137924853648ed2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdff5…7bd9backed Yes | 17c | 2,338$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.01 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 7c | 1,727$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.35 | 308 | 24.4%75 W · 233 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 74c | 1,179$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.82 | 174 | 48.3%84 W · 90 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8130…5a50backed Yes | 7c | 1,107$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.87 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 80c | 1,079$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.58 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 5c | 778.37$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 364 | 22.8%83 W · 281 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 2c | 723.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 106 | 13.2%14 W · 92 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 27c | 688$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.2 | 1,615 | 23.9%386 W · 1,229 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 23c | 683.95$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.56 | 501 | 23.8%119 W · 382 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e93…0a5cbacked Yes | 23c | 604.14$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 41c | 590.93$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.77 | 160 | 33.1%53 W · 107 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed Yes | 14c | 548.15$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.79 | 227 | 48.9%111 W · 116 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…66b0backed Yes | 21c | 458.54$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.8 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 11c | 438.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 414.7$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.1 | 3,939 | 23.2%913 W · 3,026 L | +125.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc9…9ec4backed No | 77c | 356.55$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.6 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…c09ebacked Yes | 8c | 348.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 23c | 344.74$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.8 | 596 | 25%149 W · 447 L | -19.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f2…c000backed Yes | 24c | 335.74$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf834…8a5fbacked Yes | 16c | 329.89$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.44 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 287.41$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.88 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 282.2$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.95 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 262.76$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.31 | 1,048 | 68.7%720 W · 328 L | -33.6wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 255.32$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9053…fb1cbacked Yes | 7c | 254.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 30c | 250$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.19 | 426 | 30.3%129 W · 297 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 26c | 242.53$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.06 | 611 | 22.7%139 W · 472 L | +13.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 9c | 229.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 493 | 32.9%162 W · 331 L | +23.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked Yes | 23c | 201$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.13 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 80c | 200$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 13c | 167.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 75c | 166.17$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 154.52$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…aaa8backed Yes | 9c | 136.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2271…16a0backed Yes | 21c | 123.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 120.69$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 79c | 118$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 525 | 67%352 W · 173 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed Yes | 43c | 116.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 76c | 108.11$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 103.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 100.55$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 80c | 100.36$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 23c | 100.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 508 | 46.1%234 W · 274 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 199 | 20.6%41 W · 158 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 599 | 21.5%129 W · 470 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 151 | 33.1%50 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 30c | 99.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 474 | 33.1%157 W · 317 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 20c | 99.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 130 | 27.7%36 W · 94 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 99.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 79c | 96.51$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ed…203abacked Yes | 38c | 91.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bd…eab2backed Yes | 15c | 90.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 90.04$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…52d3backed No | 79c | 90$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 23c | 89.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 214 | 23.8%51 W · 163 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4351…5463backed Yes | 39c | 84.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x678d…1943backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 311 | 32.2%100 W · 211 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0e…a5ccbacked Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb1…c27dbacked Yes | 21c | 78.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 77c | 72.18$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…6977backed Yes | 25c | 69.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaad…255cbacked Yes | 22c | 69.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e25…c7dbbacked No | 76c | 65.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5673…32babacked Yes | 20c | 65.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +41%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b1…b468backed No | 67c | 65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7637…92d3backed Yes | 26c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 63c | 56.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 22c | 54.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 102 | 42.2%43 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 27c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 202 | 34.7%70 W · 132 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 241 | 60.2%145 W · 96 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 512 | 35.9%184 W · 328 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb96a…74d8backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 210 | 31%65 W · 145 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 76c | 46.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 731 | 38.7%283 W · 448 L | +36.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8eaf…0b89backed Yes | 28c | 45.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…7dafbacked No | 76c | 43.53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 85 | 76.5%65 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1840…03b1backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f29…ac2cbacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6e…2c19backed Yes | 29c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed No | 79c | 39.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 214 | 32.7%70 W · 144 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 78c | 39.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9da1…109abacked No | 74c | 37.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 48cpaid | +205.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 79c | 34.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 76c | 32.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 1,615 | 61.9%999 W · 616 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 78c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 31.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 74c | 29.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 706 | 75.5%533 W · 173 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 291 | 48.8%142 W · 149 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed No | 69c | 25.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 213 | 63.4%135 W · 78 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 3,835 | 61.1%2,345 W · 1,490 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 941 | 62.3%586 W · 355 L | -24.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.