Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Fils vs Nava
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5f38509f4e7c827eb6a292c64ad1e639f810debd0ba5b91a161d8507d254f71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Filsof Fils, Nava
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,297
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,297 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Fils | 58c | 2,237$1,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7767…4fb2backed Nava | 61c | 2,056$1,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,258.65 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7402…8020backed Nava | 50c | 1,966$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.19 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Fils | 55c | 1,410$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.8 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…5018backed Nava | 37c | 1,039$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.58 | 208 | 44.2%92 W · 116 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8c…f75abacked Fils | 67c | 730.11$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.97 | 327 | 63.9%209 W · 118 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d1…c677backed Nava | 47c | 564.7$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.28 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4c…39c0backed Fils | 6c | 464.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +846.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Fils | 59c | 335.19$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.41 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6b…ec86backed Nava | 44c | 292.22$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.53 | 1,062 | 31.8%338 W · 724 L | -27.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe544…bafebacked Nava | 37c | 260.05$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…22f2backed Fils | 71c | 228.76$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.44 | 542 | 49.3%267 W · 275 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Fils | 58c | 178.96$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.63 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0101…83b4backed Fils | 59c | 165.41$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d87…abeabacked Fils | 67c | 164.67$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf26f…8f93backed Fils | 10c | 160$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.6 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Fils | 35c | 153$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.87 | 694 | 38%264 W · 430 L | +21.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…7874backed Fils | 73c | 151.77$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…780dbacked Fils | 35c | 144$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.96 | 181 | 32.6%59 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…0c11backed Fils | 70c | 140.29$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 681 | 57.6%392 W · 289 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Nava | 40c | 119.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.21 | 157 | 51.6%81 W · 76 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759c…05e2backed Nava | 25c | 114.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 196 | 49%96 W · 100 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Nava | 40c | 96.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 512 | 36.5%187 W · 325 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Fils | 55c | 86.34$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 637 | 46%293 W · 344 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3492…969abacked Fils | 58c | 84.03$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Fils | 59c | 83.4$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.96 | 830 | 47%390 W · 440 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4739…a1c1backed Nava | 30c | 80.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 226 | 42%95 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Fils | 75c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 1,151 | 48.7%560 W · 591 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Fils | 35c | 72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.48 | 257 | 37%95 W · 162 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Fils | 64c | 66.69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…2b70backed Fils | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 399 | 41.9%167 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Fils | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9712…0c47backed Fils | 78c | 49.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Nava | 47c | 48.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 176 | 54.5%96 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…fe16backed Nava | 27c | 47.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 710 | 21.3%151 W · 559 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d9…3624backed Fils | 71c | 42.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Fils | 64c | 40.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 341 | 48.1%164 W · 177 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed Fils | 41c | 39.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 246 | 32.9%81 W · 165 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc46…79c4backed Nava | 36c | 37.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf9…be26backed Fils | 60c | 36.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 430 | 62.3%268 W · 162 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Fils | 35c | 33.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 290 | 39.3%114 W · 176 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Fils | 41c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 482 | 35.9%173 W · 309 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Nava | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Fils | 74c | 24.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7061…b4aebacked Fils | 59c | 19.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa888…e98cbacked Fils | 59c | 19.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 164 | 59.1%97 W · 67 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Fils | 70c | 15.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 336 | 61.3%206 W · 130 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Fils vs Navathis page
- Fils vs. Nava: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Fils vs. Nava: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Madrid Open: Arthur Fils vs Emilio NavaArthur Fils won
- Set Handicap: Fils (-1.5) vs Nava (+1.5)Fils won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.