Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa610e1e3f5b37e104e6bb8a5620cc65f5acfcd78ae33031b1e0359c7729da8c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,700
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,132
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,700 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 33c | 1,793$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.6 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 62c | 330.07$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.96 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb22…8186backed Yes | 43c | 319.19$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.35 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 5c | 245.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 33c | 234.37$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.61 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51df…8605backed Yes | 37c | 217.54$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.49 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2224…23e1backed No | 70c | 150.11$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 13c | 127.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 90.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 70c | 80.33$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed Yes | 37c | 65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes | 26c | 61.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7a…8465backed Yes | 31c | 59.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 35c | 58.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 62c | 58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 37c | 46.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e1…1b3dbacked Yes | 35c | 46.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…1989backed No | 69c | 43.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0366…ec39backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 37c | 36.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x852d…f63abacked Yes | 36c | 31.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…945ebacked Yes | 38c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b47…da4abacked No | 71c | 28.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 28.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 56c | 24.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 66c | 22.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b88…a191backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c6…d465backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1298…e850backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 67c | 19.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 19.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 8?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 8?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 8?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 8?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 8?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.