Tennis · resolved market
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gonzalo Villanueva
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa63cb1fa8bc5c754c0ba12d969a6d9d548a1553c0ab3844f6534fdab287e57a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Gonzalo Villanuevaof Joaquin Aguilar, Gonzalo Villanueva
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,421
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,421 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c50…e0c9backed Joaquin Aguilar | 18c | 9,549$1,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,747 | 421 | 31.6%133 W · 288 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeecc…521cbacked Joaquin Aguilar | 5c | 1,961$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Joaquin Aguilar | 13c | 1,887$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.94 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Gonzalo Villanueva | 76c | 1,424$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.63 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…f4debacked Joaquin Aguilar | 32c | 1,285$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.22 | 1,475 | 35.2%519 W · 956 L | -14.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe857…7b3bbacked Joaquin Aguilar | 13c | 1,103$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 838 | 23.2%194 W · 644 L | -58.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Joaquin Aguilar | 13c | 900.52$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.71 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Joaquin Aguilar | 8c | 899.38$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.59 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Joaquin Aguilar | 20c | 884.78$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.72 | 1,228 | 23.1%284 W · 944 L | -164.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -47%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3a34…51fabacked Joaquin Aguilar | 6c | 750$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 220 | 20%44 W · 176 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Gonzalo Villanueva | 76c | 550.45$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.48 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Joaquin Aguilar | 13c | 519.55$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 302 | 26.8%81 W · 221 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Joaquin Aguilar | 4c | 510.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 668 | 31.3%209 W · 459 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…3f3fbacked Joaquin Aguilar | 11c | 430.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 853 | 48.9%417 W · 436 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Joaquin Aguilar | 40c | 400.25$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x287d…38febacked Joaquin Aguilar | 17c | 379.27$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 374 | 21.9%82 W · 292 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad5…ccdebacked Joaquin Aguilar | 42c | 279.61$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.18 | 550 | 32.7%180 W · 370 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Gonzalo Villanueva | 55c | 250$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Joaquin Aguilar | 43c | 208.63$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.71 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ade…ed94backed Gonzalo Villanueva | 57c | 206.88$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.96 | 1,458 | 54%787 W · 671 L | -33.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Joaquin Aguilar | 45c | 149.67$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.88 | 2,462 | 38.5%948 W · 1,514 L | +93.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Joaquin Aguilar | 14c | 139.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 684 | 30%205 W · 479 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…32a5backed Joaquin Aguilar | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 222 | 8.6%19 W · 203 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a80…d472backed Joaquin Aguilar | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,186 | 52.4%622 W · 564 L | +28.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Gonzalo Villanueva | 56c | 89.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…5369backed Gonzalo Villanueva | 69c | 69.22$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Joaquin Aguilar | 44c | 63.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4de…672abacked Joaquin Aguilar | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1707…f7eebacked Gonzalo Villanueva | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Gonzalo Villanueva | 56c | 53.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a85…e543backed Joaquin Aguilar | 30c | 45.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 214 | 55.1%118 W · 96 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Gonzalo Villanueva | 59c | 44.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 749 | 55.1%413 W · 336 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11ec…db9dbacked Gonzalo Villanueva | 72c | 40.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Joaquin Aguilar | 41c | 38.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 255 | 50.6%129 W · 126 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0897…5118backed Gonzalo Villanueva | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa4…50a3backed Gonzalo Villanueva | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62f7…0e8cbacked Gonzalo Villanueva | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Gonzalo Villanueva | 56c | 26.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff6…0918backed Joaquin Aguilar | 43c | 23.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 498 | 57%284 W · 214 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe10f…e8bbbacked Gonzalo Villanueva | 75c | 16.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 185 | 72.4%134 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.