Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa64dab0e6a1ef2e772579c463c5672015c5a974507c5bcf683961fa15be4514c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,897
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,818
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,897 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 48c | 610.11$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.85 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 13c | 399.53$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.67 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 56c | 328.3$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.96 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 32c | 274.4$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.56 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 239.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 74c | 204.21$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.02 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 54c | 200$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.98 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 52c | 186.7$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.78 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 7c | 186.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.44 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 39c | 145.21$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.73 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 13c | 141.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.82 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 27c | 139.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 11c | 130$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 42c | 118.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed No | 22c | 108.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 77c | 101.1$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6673…eddfbacked Yes | 65c | 100.97$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…0e4cbacked Yes | 12c | 84.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.96 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 56c | 83.33$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.53 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 63c | 80$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85ff…0d46backed Yes | 61c | 78.16$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 56c | 77.13$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 59c | 54.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 55c | 43.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2b…4b88backed Yes | 66c | 37.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 34c | 31.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35ff…4796backed Yes | 58c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 62cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 23.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 53c | 19.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 62c | 16.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…14debacked Yes | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.