Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Metz win on 2025-11-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa67a6fd6327b6e8cdf5ea2d6b0738209ac7bb5b941aed9d42fe0b9b284c92f5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,940
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,074
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,940 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 25c | 1,265$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.3 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 24c | 833.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.33 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Yes | 34c | 809.47$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.44 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed No | 76c | 789.47$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 75c | 598$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.87 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed No | 21c | 474.16$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.66 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 7c | 303.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked No | 76c | 200.33$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.25 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced3…ce6bbacked Yes | 27c | 177.78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 31cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0a…4912backed No | 77c | 158$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c84…1093backed Yes | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 28c | 145$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.4 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…ca1bbacked Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…fadbbacked Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed No | 73c | 108.78$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.41 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9b…303ebacked Yes | 23c | 96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3339…1db6backed No | 73c | 85$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 73cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 75c | 79.7$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ec…68a8backed No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3852…f0bbbacked Yes | 27c | 64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…b021backed No | 78c | 63.32$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 73c | 63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d0…b129backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +145%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85cc…4895backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 136 | 55.9%76 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 177 | 56.5%100 W · 77 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked No | 72c | 28.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -14.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6a76…51b7backed No | 73c | 27.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 73c | 21.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb3…c35abacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Metz win on 2025-11-02?this page
- Will FC Nantes vs. FC Metz end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Nantes win on 2025-11-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.