Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: 1. FC Köln (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa68177a63037e79be7856bd6b207b24d048a761300af1c0d3451fbc0d64bbb5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1. FC Kölnof 1. FC Köln, SV Werder Bremen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,006
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,558
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,006 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed 1. FC Köln | 58c | 8,620$4,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,620.22 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed SV Werder Bremen | 42c | 7,352$3,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,116.16 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…764ebacked 1. FC Köln | 37c | 446.35$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.38 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed SV Werder Bremen | 45c | 381.91$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.94 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed 1. FC Köln | 13c | 352.48$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.84 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed SV Werder Bremen | 63c | 297.01$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.91 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb234…5b9ebacked 1. FC Köln | 62c | 267.94$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.82 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…df18backed 1. FC Köln | 59c | 247.98$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.67 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked SV Werder Bremen | 43c | 238.19$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.24 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed 1. FC Köln | 51c | 210.83$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.17 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked SV Werder Bremen | 42c | 169.16$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.87 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed 1. FC Köln | 18c | 117.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.2 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +193.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed SV Werder Bremen | 41c | 115.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 146 | 42.5%62 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed SV Werder Bremen | 79c | 109.6$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.59 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 75cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked SV Werder Bremen | 55c | 106$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.53 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed SV Werder Bremen | 50c | 95.06$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked SV Werder Bremen | 50c | 92.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed SV Werder Bremen | 50c | 92.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked SV Werder Bremen | 50c | 92.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 110 | 49.1%54 W · 56 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked SV Werder Bremen | 50c | 92.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed SV Werder Bremen | 42c | 87.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed 1. FC Köln | 34c | 54.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed 1. FC Köln | 62c | 52.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc251…a5d3backed SV Werder Bremen | 79c | 48.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…7cb7backed 1. FC Köln | 59c | 41.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 117 | 51.3%60 W · 57 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed 1. FC Köln | 72c | 38.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed SV Werder Bremen | 39c | 37.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…edfdbacked SV Werder Bremen | 46c | 34.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…190abacked 1. FC Köln | 63c | 31.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78d8…cffcbacked SV Werder Bremen | 70c | 28.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked 1. FC Köln | 50c | 21.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: 1. FC Köln (-1.5)this page
- 1. FC Köln vs. SV Werder Bremen: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Köln vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Köln vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Köln vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 3.5Over won
- 1. FC Köln vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Köln (-2.5)SV Werder Bremen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.