Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Köln vs. SV Werder Bremen: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0f527495125009432ca1b4021b0660d6e28bd2ec208705f258f1e4f9a6e7095
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,971
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,370
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,971 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd69d…fe68backed No | 0c | 8,543$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f64…1bcbbacked Yes | 64c | 2,261$1,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.98 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed No | 1c | 1,915$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +193.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 52c | 1,238$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.93 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26ce…6da3backed Yes | 60c | 522.16$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 41c | 334.89$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.57 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa23f…a64ebacked Yes | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 86 | 64%55 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 40c | 288.11$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.24 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 35c | 278.96$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.97 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…1639backed No | 52c | 242.8$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.26 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Yes | 46c | 235.27$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.6 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Yes | 45c | 235$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.03 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d9…26a2backed Yes | 60c | 162.67$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.07 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 42c | 120.6$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.62 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 42c | 120.6$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.62 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 40c | 120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 157 | 47.1%74 W · 83 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 47c | 97.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 36c | 92.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d12…cc43backed Yes | 34c | 84.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.93 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed No | 57c | 76.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4d…1a1fbacked No | 79c | 62.13$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb539…cb26backed Yes | 60c | 50.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…dd56backed Yes | 59c | 49.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…866bbacked Yes | 59c | 49.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…7e5ebacked Yes | 60c | 48.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes | 37c | 48.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed Yes | 59c | 44.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +101%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e64…6e0bbacked Yes | 60c | 40.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Yes | 74c | 39.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 90 | 68.9%62 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed No | 73c | 30.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed No | 40c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Yes | 51c | 25.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6134…c8ccbacked Yes | 60c | 24.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed No | 67c | 21.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee45…e055backed Yes | 60c | 19.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Yes | 59c | 19.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Köln vs. SV Werder Bremen: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- 1. FC Köln vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Köln vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Köln vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 3.5Over won
- 1. FC Köln vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Köln (-1.5)1. FC Köln won
- Spread: 1. FC Köln (-2.5)SV Werder Bremen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.