TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

1. FC Köln vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$178,356
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$210,701

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $178,356 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8a92…6941backed Over57c25,653$14,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,079.555455.6%30 W · 24 L+9.6wins+0.18per pick38cpaid+50.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over55c21,096$11,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,543.0310041%41 W · 59 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over61c11,131$6,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,313.852,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under46c10,919$4,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,996.923,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5da4…e203backed Under48c9,708$4,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,624.31666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under39c9,060$3,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,542.6275142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x374a…03edbacked Under45c6,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,699.995843.1%25 W · 33 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-15.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xefdd…017fbacked Under46c5,328$2,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,450.81580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+74.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Over53c3,972$2,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,851.620845.7%95 W · 113 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-21.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6394…9749backed Over55c2,369$1,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,065.92025%5 W · 15 L-4.1wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-50.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under45c2,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.9969851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe02…dababacked Under49c1,978$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$969.4450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3151…206dbacked Over45c1,723$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944.47450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d2e…896dbacked Under47c1,221$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.84633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Under1c1,200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15472.1%1 W · 46 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-57.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Over55c1,084$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.9114652.7%77 W · 69 L+11.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+11.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under53c1,016$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.2664043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed Under45c1,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4506549.2%32 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Over53c981.51$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.320548.3%99 W · 106 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Over53c974.01$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.818644.1%82 W · 104 L-10.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Over53c968.89$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.6521355.4%118 W · 95 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28dc…a1f2backed Under45c967$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.158158%47 W · 34 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over60c928.49$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.181,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed Under45c918.22$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.26549.2%32 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c80…93b5backed Over53c916.8$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.895538.2%21 W · 34 L-5.3wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-19.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Over54c907.46$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.4117749.7%88 W · 89 L-10.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xade2…8757backed Over54c907.46$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.418251.2%42 W · 40 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under45c899.99$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.995745.6%26 W · 31 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under45c885.36$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.131,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea03…a5a3backed Over55c884.55$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.05366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46d3…2c20backed Over61c840.52$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed Over53c789.38$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.014461.4%27 W · 17 L+5.5wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+15.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x800a…0b4dbacked Over63c771.38$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.412236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-20.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over60c700$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28018759.4%111 W · 76 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under44c581.25$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.151,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over71c542.1$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.516060.6%97 W · 63 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe11…18cfbacked Under45c406.14$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.768950.6%45 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e05…2ebcbacked Under45c406.14$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.768851.1%45 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9544…790dbacked Under45c387.77$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.1811540.9%47 W · 68 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x47fb…0c7bbacked Under45c357.79$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.018949.4%44 W · 45 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Under45c355.13$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.8111148.6%54 W · 57 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd27d…a84fbacked Under46c342.5$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.556842.6%29 W · 39 L-7.0wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-25.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Over53c340$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.815747.1%74 W · 83 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Under18c327.8$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.933737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under46c300.01$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13929855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Under45c298.63$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.3817852.8%94 W · 84 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9aa5…e01bbacked Over36c267.11$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.953036.7%11 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f354backed Under22c251.93$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.381338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under45c250$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.542046.4%195 W · 225 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd1e…f62bbacked Under50c242.5$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.25825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6619…703ebacked Over55c238.83$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.4718958.2%110 W · 79 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdabd…6adabacked Over44c235.8$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.054858.3%28 W · 20 L+8.8wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+49.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over58c228.87$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.1711049.1%54 W · 56 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Over60c220.95$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.876952.2%36 W · 33 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe550…4ebbbacked Over44c219.64$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12312635.7%45 W · 81 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Under45c214.89$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.76844.1%30 W · 38 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Under45c214.89$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.718554.1%100 W · 85 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked Under45c214.89$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.77751.9%40 W · 37 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-15.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6569…7600backed Under45c214.89$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.74744.7%21 W · 26 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-29.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Under45c214.12$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.3514055%77 W · 63 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over78c203.64$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9648658.6%285 W · 201 L+44.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x63c5…1ecbbacked Over53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$946541.5%27 W · 38 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Under47c195.7$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.9815540.6%63 W · 92 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0189…cab8backed Over56c191.24$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.153167.7%21 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c2…190dbacked Over51c190.31$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.251080%8 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+58%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Under23c189.95$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4422221.6%48 W · 174 L-34.2wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-50.3%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x74d0…de45backed Under40c178.69$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.484445.5%20 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1966…da9ebacked Over55c176.91$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.618050%40 W · 40 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Over56c173.86$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.510554.3%57 W · 48 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x274b…d408backed Under38c167.22$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.542250%11 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b8f…f31bbacked Over60c162.67$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.071850%9 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed Under45c150$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.55839.7%23 W · 35 L-6.2wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa975…42eebacked Over60c141.18$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.475052%26 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Under45c134.97$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.746453.1%34 W · 30 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a15…52d6backed Under48c123.04$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.066752.2%35 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fae…3e26backed Over33c116.34$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Under45c107.44$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3515048%72 W · 78 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5bb…0fe1backed Under45c107.44$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3512346.3%57 W · 66 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6687…b9ddbacked Under46c105.17$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.382737%10 W · 17 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-32%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x02bc…1fd2backed Under44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446442.2%27 W · 37 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+3.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Under45c99.09$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.595942.4%25 W · 34 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-15.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Over42c96.52$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.9838845.6%177 W · 211 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7356…04cfbacked Over59c95.33$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.722100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+50%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x033b…5e3fbacked Over53c84.33$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.053562.9%22 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7663…c9aabacked Over50c77.6$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-44%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8277…7d31backed Over33c76.09$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.081136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f28…d173backed Over60c69.51$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.152240.9%9 W · 13 L-5.4wins-0.25per pick65cpaid-37.1%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Under47c63.4$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.812056.7%68 W · 52 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x91ff…edfdbacked Over53c62.61$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.272050%10 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3a7…aefcbacked Over53c61.35$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.842100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33af…288abacked Over32c59.95$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.7727142.8%116 W · 155 L+18.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2dfb…1643backed Over55c58.38$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under26c58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7922245.9%102 W · 120 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0ffe…9150backed Over59c55.3$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.42941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under19c55.18$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4849143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under45c54.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.751,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Over37c54.39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.036854.4%37 W · 31 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4eb6…9ce6backed Over35c53.56$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.68540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d12…cc43backed Over58c50.42$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.181258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+33.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under45c49.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.515454.5%84 W · 70 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.