TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

1. FC Köln vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$107,370
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$113,900

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,370 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under60c14,051$8,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,459.663,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over33c13,776$4,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,229.6310041%41 W · 59 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Over33c11,227$3,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,522.1543532.2%140 W · 295 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed Over48c10,420$5,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,418.3816045%72 W · 88 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a91…c6b1backed Under67c9,977$6,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,684.916761.2%41 W · 26 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+22.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under61c8,877$5,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,427.1175142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd500…4568backed Under67c4,979$3,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,335.69966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+27.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over26c2,866$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,134.3411142.3%47 W · 64 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+20.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x73c5…2f80backed Over38c2,825$1,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,756.226051.7%31 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under15c2,803$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.4748658.6%285 W · 201 L+44.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under68c2,051$1,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,396.821,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Under67c2,000$1,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3409854.1%53 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Over32c2,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,359.993554.3%19 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x79fb…c230backed Under6c1,600$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1021513.3%2 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-25.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd710…cf6fbacked Under62c1,576$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$977.21250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Under68c1,487$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.7220845.7%95 W · 113 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-21.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8a92…6941backed Over35c1,223$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792.685455.6%30 W · 24 L+9.6wins+0.18per pick38cpaid+50.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over33c1,080$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723.9469851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f3…3399backed Over45c1,078$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.07250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under62c1,042$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651.1533938.1%129 W · 210 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Over47c1,038$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.579856.1%55 W · 43 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Under1c1,010$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.21472.1%1 W · 46 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-57.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12b9…3ec2backed Over23c834.15$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.310641.5%44 W · 62 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x800a…0b4dbacked Over33c790.13$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.022236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-20.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over40c710.2$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.9633737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over33c697.78$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.4929855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Under69c644.8$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.644751.1%24 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe550…4ebbbacked Over30c638.67$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.0712635.7%45 W · 81 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd27d…a84fbacked Under65c592.72$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.696842.6%29 W · 39 L-7.0wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-25.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa8ed…8bb4backed Over33c581.7$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.74616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick46cpaid-49.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Under67c544.01$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.4914652.7%77 W · 69 L+11.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+11.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Under65c537.46$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.0420548.3%99 W · 106 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over24c536.14$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.782,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec8d…dd71backed Under67c524.2$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.213836.8%14 W · 24 L-4.8wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-17.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under58c514.51$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.822245.9%102 W · 120 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under62c509.05$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.681,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7b8…e32bbacked Under6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick10cpaid+104.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xade2…8757backed Under68c495.55$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.568251.2%42 W · 40 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under67c457.85$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.3418644.1%82 W · 104 L-10.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Under67c444.54$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.8421355.4%118 W · 95 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Under67c444.54$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.8417749.7%88 W · 89 L-10.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Under67c444.54$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.846453.1%34 W · 30 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab9f…75f1backed Under72c333.56$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.762642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+17.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f22…2935backed Under60c325.47$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.22050%10 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under67c300$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20133047.3%156 W · 174 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d91…df18backed Over49c296.76$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.356550.8%33 W · 32 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+22.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Under67c292.57$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.0217852.8%94 W · 84 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under59c291.87$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.891,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Under67c289.68$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.0914055%77 W · 63 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Under67c281.41$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.5411148.6%54 W · 57 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28e8…6080backed Under67c274$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.582450%12 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under67c248.83$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.715940.7%24 W · 35 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x74d0…de45backed Under46c232.22$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.824445.5%20 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over33c224.12$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.0781732.8%268 W · 549 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9013…e7e0backed Over48c202.38$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.516132.8%20 W · 41 L-5.6wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-32.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb361…c953backed Over32c195.28$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.62100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+164.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6619…703ebacked Over33c189.05$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.6618958.2%110 W · 79 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b5f…7b99backed Under52c185.74$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.7410246.1%47 W · 55 L+0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Under35c184.55$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3322221.6%48 W · 174 L-34.2wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-50.3%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x2080…6d80backed Under59c180.39$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1650…42f6backed Under50c161.02$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.513935.9%14 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33af…288abacked Over28c135.74$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.4627142.8%116 W · 155 L+18.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under65c134.43$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.0264043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Under76c111.01$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.379052.2%47 W · 43 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+59.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x033b…5e3fbacked Under57c110.94$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.693562.9%22 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc37…bac6backed Under77c109.09$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Over48c104.16$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.166758.2%39 W · 28 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6687…b9ddbacked Under67c100.21$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.142737%10 W · 17 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-32%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x60e4…f926backed Over19c100.05$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.04944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+41%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd91a…211cbacked Over20c97.1$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.685024%12 W · 38 L-5.3wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-27.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x14ec…0923backed Under52c93.38$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.56862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4411…20bfbacked Under63c93.12$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.673458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed Over33c88.21$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.16860.3%41 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfce1…4f4cbacked Over33c82.72$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.424971.4%35 W · 14 L+7.3wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+43.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd208…cbcdbacked Over33c82.72$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.422759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over37c79.97$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.761353.8%7 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee5b…dac8backed Over31c79.1$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.951747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+29.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c8a…02acbacked Over33c77.22$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.743655.6%20 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea8d…89b1backed Under67c73.15$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.015149%25 W · 26 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-22.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x91ff…edfdbacked Under62c72.94$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.872050%10 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Under67c70.23$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0618554.1%100 W · 85 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Over33c65.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.219850%49 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7571…3bcbbacked Under77c64.41$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58c8…b1a2backed Under46c63.1$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.03333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked Under67c61.96$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.517751.9%40 W · 37 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-15.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6569…7600backed Under67c61.96$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.514744.7%21 W · 26 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-29.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over60c60.89$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.535276.9%40 W · 12 L+13.0wins+0.25per pick52cpaid+72%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x738e…dc37backed Under67c60.04$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2360%0 W · 6 L-2.8wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc482…b505backed Under55c60$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333956.4%22 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-5.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8de…a2b8backed Over33c57.6$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.592100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+133.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Over33c56.08$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.578547.1%40 W · 45 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-22.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd208…29e6backed Over33c56.08$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.573658.3%21 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Over33c56.08$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.577349.3%36 W · 37 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Over33c56.08$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.577450%37 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under80c53.34$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6749143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over33c51.34$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.411049.1%54 W · 56 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Over33c51.34$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.46952.2%36 W · 33 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d1f…acafbacked Over33c50.58$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.89425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4e8…ff03backed Over33c50.58$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.893464.7%22 W · 12 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x06e7…3acabacked Over33c50.58$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.897749.4%38 W · 39 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.