MLB · resolved market
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa685c07cc50ac153ea64b7b7155a08fced00562482284b5b49e91abf731ebe38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Texas Rangers, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,252
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,252 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x161a…4103backed Athletics | 61c | 7,428$4,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,874.9 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Texas Rangers | 38c | 6,111$2,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,322.37 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Athletics | 64c | 3,469$2,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,234.84 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Texas Rangers | 38c | 2,476$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.22 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Texas Rangers | 36c | 1,511$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.67 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Texas Rangers | 36c | 1,201$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.84 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…87efbacked Texas Rangers | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Athletics | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Athletics | 64c | 989.7$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.29 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Texas Rangers | 26c | 988.51$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.24 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Athletics | 60c | 970$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Texas Rangers | 26c | 858$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.49 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Athletics | 62c | 806.4$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.32 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Texas Rangers | 38c | 676.02$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.58 | 214 | 49.5%106 W · 108 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Athletics | 59c | 439.92$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.37 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Athletics | 60c | 399$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.6 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Texas Rangers | 37c | 392.88$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.41 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Texas Rangers | 40c | 362$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.8 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Athletics | 62c | 324.2$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.95 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Athletics | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Texas Rangers | 9c | 299$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Texas Rangers | 37c | 295$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.15 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Texas Rangers | 41c | 262.59$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.66 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Athletics | 64c | 205.25$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.26 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Texas Rangers | 36c | 193.01$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.35 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Athletics | 62c | 162.15$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.04 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Athletics | 77c | 152$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Texas Rangers | 37c | 81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Texas Rangers | 39c | 54.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Texas Rangers | 31c | 50.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Athletics | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed Athletics | 61c | 43.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked Texas Rangers | 35c | 43.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Athletics | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Athletics | 80c | 29.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Athletics | 61c | 29.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 203 | 62.6%127 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Athletics | 77c | 25.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Athletics won
- Texas Rangers vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 6.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.