MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e7eb8a280bd2d951ddfa1d8a1fcc0bfa46b5041c28051acb68c691a81598a31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,482
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,482 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 49c | 2,283$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,163.2 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 33c | 1,706$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,144.49 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 51c | 1,500$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 964.38$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.64 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 898.61$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.29 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 60c | 502$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.08 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 49c | 419.04$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.71 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 51c | 371.9$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.67 | 476 | 52.9%252 W · 224 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 72c | 311.7$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.79 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 25c | 311$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.11 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 48c | 221$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 51c | 220$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.2 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…d3aebacked Over | 39c | 212.36$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.54 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -8.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -52%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…08bdbacked Over | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +42%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 179$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.88 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Over | 46c | 170$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 214 | 49.5%106 W · 108 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Under | 50c | 145.96$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.98 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 51c | 120.18$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.29 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 60c | 102.87$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.84 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 49c | 89.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.89 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 50c | 89.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.69 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 41c | 75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 43c | 73.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.94 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Under | 72c | 65.18$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed Under | 56c | 63.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +12.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed Under | 62c | 56.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…7d67backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Under | 74c | 41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 731 | 43.4%317 W · 414 L | -15.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 48c | 38.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Under | 52c | 33.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 50c | 31.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 45c | 29.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x345c…b59dbacked Under | 52c | 28.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 57c | 27.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 48c | 26.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 50c | 25.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 881 | 47.8%421 W · 460 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8c…2d81backed Over | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 166 | 61.4%102 W · 64 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 47c | 22.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 55c | 21.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Athletics won
- Texas Rangers vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 6.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.