MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15a33799df4fcdc1047d1d70df8b934b4227a7f62670d2d37c42e88506ac0120
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,952
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,952 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fb6…c91abacked Under | 41c | 85,160$35,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,286.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 58c | 59,753$34,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,009.92 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 60c | 15,856$9,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,421.08 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 59c | 5,377$3,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,223.02 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 60c | 1,696$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.53 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 61c | 1,400$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 52c | 1,303$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.65 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc279…6465backed Under | 42c | 1,152$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.2 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Under | 41c | 1,084$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.63 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 1,030$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.27 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 59c | 890$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.9 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb68…4ef3backed Under | 42c | 681.62$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.24 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 39c | 678.57$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.66 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 58c | 455.99$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.05 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Over | 60c | 340$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.7 | 214 | 49.5%106 W · 108 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Over | 59c | 323.02$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.44 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 59c | 230$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.3 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Under | 55c | 229.55$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.25 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5145…dd71backed Over | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 58c | 175.59$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.75 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 59c | 165.01$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.07 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a1…d1eebacked Over | 28c | 148.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.74 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 59c | 147.07$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 39c | 141.05$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 55c | 117$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 54c | 111.02$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddfc…cd9ebacked Under | 41c | 105.72$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…008bbacked Over | 56c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 47c | 82.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.66 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Over | 60c | 66.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f0…285fbacked Over | 59c | 51.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -9.7wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Under | 57c | 49.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Over | 63c | 43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Over | 64c | 41.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 310 | 52.6%163 W · 147 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6016…1ab5backed Under | 42c | 41.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Over | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…eebbbacked Over | 41c | 37.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 64c | 33.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 65c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 54c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 54c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 43c | 24.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce9…7115backed Under | 68c | 21.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Athletics won
- Texas Rangers vs. AthleticsAthletics won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 6.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. AthleticsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.