Token Launches · resolved market
OpenSea token market cap (FDV) <$1B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6ab4ae96dbf906234e4f43542e81a6d078cefe6c09175f26f42d49914a638fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2722…7e87backed Yes | 9c | 11,111$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7791…af80backed Yes | 8c | 10,423$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.59 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca87…8e3dbacked Yes | 6c | 10,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 8,088$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6791…7ab9backed Yes | 0c | 2,030$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a26…8acbbacked Yes | 9c | 1,497$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.35 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…fec9backed Yes | 9c | 1,386$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.89 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 17cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 13c | 793.61$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.47 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x463d…5990backed Yes | 7c | 600$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 12c | 422.92$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 8c | 396.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 9c | 343.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0baf…409cbacked Yes | 10c | 282$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5801…1c21backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce3…b625backed Yes | 10c | 239.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe3…dd60backed Yes | 7c | 220$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8e…3c9cbacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1288…73f0backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc5…f318backed Yes | 11c | 199.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb21…51bebacked Yes | 14c | 173.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9292…2cd1backed Yes | 12c | 165.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ec…1134backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0271…57e5backed Yes | 10c | 132$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 10c | 131.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd182…9681backed Yes | 15c | 131.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccce…2c7cbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfc…028bbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe23…3074backed Yes | 21c | 72.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1602…cbf7backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…5788backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- OpenSea token market cap (FDV) <$1B one day after launch?this page
- No Opensea token launch by July?Yes won
- Opensea token market cap (FDV) $1-3b one day after launch?No won
- Opensea token market cap (FDV) $10-15b one day after launch?No won
- Opensea token market cap (FDV) $15b or more one day after launch?No won
- Opensea token market cap (FDV) $3-5b one day after launch?No won
- Opensea token market cap (FDV) $5-10b one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.