Token Launches · resolved market
No Opensea token launch by July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3f0be74acc5c8e56ef533e686f6088df52a8cf0659709daf0e61c3334eee367
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,052
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa160…7b21backed Yes | 65c | 6,816$4,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,415.48 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98df…935abacked Yes | 61c | 4,399$2,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,715.74 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 3,993$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 26c | 3,749$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,758.21 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 11c | 2,708$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,411.64 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +99.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 23c | 2,484$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.97 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed Yes | 10c | 2,158$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,939.62 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 10c | 1,836$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.94 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e5…18f4backed Yes | 50c | 1,242$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.21 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.8wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a3…cd82backed No | 32c | 810.91$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2911…98a7backed Yes | 17c | 800$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.36 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 733.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6091…972bbacked Yes | 68c | 594$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked No | 4c | 459.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 434.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.94 | 57 | 5.3%3 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 18c | 395.54$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.51 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ac…c395backed Yes | 11c | 390.44$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +836.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked Yes | 4c | 389$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.44 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +4.9wins | +0.19per pick | 12cpaid | +180.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 23c | 315.1$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.97 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 70c | 250$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.15 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce3…b625backed Yes | 13c | 239.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.62 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6b…9390backed Yes | 70c | 206.77$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8809…9447backed Yes | 10c | 205.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +485.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaed…5bb2backed Yes | 23c | 205.01$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7b76backed Yes | 58c | 144.81$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 11c | 133$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.99 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 20c | 120.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.24 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f7…14cdbacked Yes | 9c | 120.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +445.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8e…1d33backed No | 36c | 109.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb883…21b8backed Yes | 27c | 109.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +168.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8524…7d91backed No | 65c | 105$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 22c | 102.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 114 | 30.7%35 W · 79 L | -15.2wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6181…ad60backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked Yes | 24c | 98.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +39%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7364…d44ebacked Yes | 65c | 97.54$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc33…4569backed Yes | 29c | 93.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed Yes | 15c | 92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba90…99b9backed No | 24c | 84.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…2ae8backed No | 22c | 82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…387dbacked Yes | 26c | 76.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +282.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e0…0fedbacked No | 66c | 75.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…4541backed Yes | 19c | 75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e92…2865backed Yes | 25c | 73.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…0e4ebacked Yes | 19c | 72.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +420.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c0…7e50backed Yes | 28c | 71.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3d…8322backed Yes | 78c | 71.3$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…19bcbacked Yes | 16c | 69.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +153.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4529…2790backed No | 73c | 68.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1446…939abacked Yes | 79c | 66.48$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc68…47bdbacked Yes | 57c | 60.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b0…f9a8backed No | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…54b2backed Yes | 24c | 50.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +312.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x040f…0caabacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed9a…4f91backed Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff37…049cbacked No | 73c | 48.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x476a…2a22backed Yes | 78c | 45.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13ff…a36bbacked Yes | 25c | 44.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9292…2cd1backed Yes | 46c | 43.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf12c…29ecbacked Yes | 33c | 40.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +205%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 71c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x532d…080fbacked Yes | 62c | 35.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…0cc4backed Yes | 54c | 25.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35cd…fa9ebacked Yes | 54c | 24.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3548…05ebbacked Yes | 46c | 23.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbf…bff4backed No | 46c | 22.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e6…572dbacked Yes | 54c | 21.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed9…c9b4backed Yes | 54c | 21.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d9…3383backed Yes | 57c | 20.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…9b81backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…5ef3backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b7…d1febacked Yes | 56c | 19.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8acb…ed2fbacked No | 69c | 16.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d6…47b6backed Yes | 76c | 14.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- No Opensea token launch by July?this page
- OpenSea token market cap (FDV) <$1B one day after launch?No won
- Opensea token market cap (FDV) $1-3b one day after launch?No won
- Opensea token market cap (FDV) $10-15b one day after launch?No won
- Opensea token market cap (FDV) $15b or more one day after launch?No won
- Opensea token market cap (FDV) $3-5b one day after launch?No won
- Opensea token market cap (FDV) $5-10b one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.