Tennis · resolved market
Almaty Open: Adam Walton vs Daniil Medvedev
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6becb6c8a16e1c25ffcd1a34e5aee009f98efc67a538d753bae833b82b441b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Medvedevof Walton, Medvedev
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Walton | 12c | 10,156$1,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,264.17 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Medvedev | 74c | 3,790$2,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.2 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Walton | 20c | 2,499$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.58 | 666 | 49.5%330 W · 336 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…3b99backed Walton | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7f…90c5backed Walton | 32c | 1,861$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -7.5wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…5683backed Walton | 28c | 1,400$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Walton | 15c | 1,291$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.65 | 252 | 44.4%112 W · 140 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Walton | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Walton | 14c | 999.98$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Medvedev | 75c | 950.2$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.95 | 11,325 | 43.4%4,912 W · 6,413 L | +18.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Walton | 19c | 805.88$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Walton | 24c | 789.99$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.65 | 6,685 | 36.9%2,466 W · 4,219 L | -96.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Walton | 27c | 375.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 642 | 40.2%258 W · 384 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Walton | 13c | 373.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,332 | 46.6%1,087 W · 1,245 L | +55.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Walton | 21c | 333.58$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.03 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Walton | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1d…f1a8backed Walton | 34c | 210$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…0ccbbacked Walton | 15c | 185$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Walton | 8c | 179.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8c…b52cbacked Walton | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Walton | 13c | 114.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 949 | 40.1%381 W · 568 L | +30.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a1…1485backed Walton | 11c | 110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Walton | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b32…8166backed Walton | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Walton | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1609…7b1fbacked Walton | 15c | 76.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73c4…a92dbacked Walton | 14c | 72.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7641…e092backed Walton | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.