Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6d87b0d69b4d15b9af18f3c9483a9f4e1a5bc7f77c9717cf01595e389ca270e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,219 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xddeb…6761backed No | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb5…84aabacked Yes | 77c | 903.92$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.92 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 9c | 804.22$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.94 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 16c | 547.19$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.98 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 359.05$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.94 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 35c | 338$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.05 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 68c | 313.29$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.72 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…4bc2backed No | 70c | 280.18$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.49 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 261.09$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.3 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 80c | 251.2$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 244.5$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 73c | 230.6$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.25 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 70c | 218.62$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.39 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 28c | 208.46$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.65 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed No | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 20c | 196.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 7c | 192.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeba1…44dfbacked Yes | 33c | 181.57$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.06 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92ae…a7b0backed No | 24c | 173.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 38c | 164.83$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.49 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 65c | 153.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked No | 68c | 150$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 149.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 76c | 134.91$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.19 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 133.2$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 117.33$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.39 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…06bcbacked Yes | 41c | 113.26$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.98 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 32c | 101.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.22 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05e…04cebacked Yes | 58c | 73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.66 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 24c | 69.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.24 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x137f…1edebacked No | 65c | 67.46$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03e4…2d3dbacked Yes | 80c | 65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 63c | 63.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 24c | 59.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 79c | 59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 63c | 57.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe573…ae05backed Yes | 53c | 56.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 24c | 50.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 70c | 49.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 36c | 48.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 61c | 48.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x809c…4861backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf465…8a3bbacked No | 65c | 37.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 40 | 80%32 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 50c | 37.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed No | 32c | 32.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be2…cba5backed No | 68c | 31.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 74cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf3…db64backed No | 66c | 30.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfc…98e0backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa680…459bbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd93…0051backed No | 68c | 29.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd41f…bb32backed No | 69c | 29.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf6…24f9backed Yes | 35c | 28.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x48ab…c17ebacked Yes | 70c | 28.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf618…6a90backed No | 70c | 26.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…1b47backed Yes | 40c | 25.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9708…c42abacked No | 60c | 25.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No | 67c | 23.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0d…4ed5backed No | 75c | 23.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 72cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x24e3…51a3backed Yes | 49c | 22.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 51c | 21.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d0…db89backed No | 57c | 21.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c09…fa55backed No | 57c | 21.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 64c | 20.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe466…1a58backed No | 63c | 17.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a05…cb86backed No | 73c | 16.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 72cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06f7…53e0backed No | 75c | 14.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -47%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 77c | 13.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C or higher on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.