Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72bc17921deedd524768bb707d8312c9026197de1848050775c20cac04d8ba28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,328 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 78c | 1,226$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.04 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 7c | 974.8$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.44 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 5c | 790.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 77c | 500.71$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.82 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 401.92$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.46 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 32c | 338$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.05 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 71c | 325.93$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.94 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…4c6dbacked No | 76c | 321.22$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.78 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 309.63$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 20c | 290.14$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.53 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 14c | 287.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 4c | 276.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 58c | 267.26$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.48 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 68c | 263.47$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.35 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7061…d14bbacked Yes | 39c | 254.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 20c | 252.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 20c | 248.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 19c | 237.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 23c | 211.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 11c | 197.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x751d…9f55backed Yes | 42c | 197.41$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.19 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 50c | 190.67$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.34 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 23c | 184$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.36 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 180.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…d8cebacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 148.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 15c | 148.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…06bcbacked Yes | 19c | 140$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 18c | 131.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 35c | 115$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 10c | 106.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 24c | 103.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 101.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 64c | 97.93$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 20c | 72.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf05e…04cebacked Yes | 29c | 72.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b66…3907backed Yes | 18c | 69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…a382backed Yes | 42c | 69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb5…84aabacked Yes | 37c | 66.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 19c | 64.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e2…a410backed Yes | 23c | 60.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 28c | 60.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…b936backed Yes | 19c | 60.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 72c | 57.95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked No | 60c | 57.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 61c | 51.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…5584backed No | 61c | 50.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…b2c2backed Yes | 25c | 50.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 58c | 50.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01d4…47d4backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9dd…1870backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 28c | 49.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe573…ae05backed Yes | 24c | 49.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 49.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 29c | 44.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 46c | 43.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…375abacked No | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 50c | 34.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 71c | 31.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34af…b672backed No | 70c | 28.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc18e…44e3backed No | 67c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed No | 62c | 22.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a05…cb86backed No | 73c | 21.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 72cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 69c | 20.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7638…b72dbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C or higher on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.