NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Jazz: O/U 242.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6d97cb53bcfaccf440321920777e877e9c76b41b3216b9e401e0754dcd6b7bf

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 21, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $6,951
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $7,907

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,951 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Over	45c	3,228$1,443 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,784.54	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1033…d851backed Under	57c	1,748$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	274	43.1%118 W · 156 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Under	53c	1,636$871 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$870.74	1,908	54.5%1,040 W · 868 L	+53.7wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fb6…fa2cbacked Under	59c	1,007$594 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$594.13	218	52.8%115 W · 103 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over	41c	1,000$410 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$590	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Under	56c	250$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	851	47.5%404 W · 447 L	-7.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Over	43c	189.7$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.95	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	44c	129$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.43	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Over	34c	120.68$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.74	1,911	45.4%868 W · 1,043 L	+22.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ca8…ddddbacked Under	67c	119.62$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	278	46.8%130 W · 148 L	-7.5wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Over	36c	114.25$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.39	762	47.1%359 W · 403 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over	34c	108.74$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.69	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77c4…d390backed Under	65c	101.36$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	207	62.3%129 W · 78 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	59cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over	43c	100$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd854…924fbacked Under	56c	86$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.16	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-3.3wins	-0.10per pick	52cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd4e6…224cbacked Under	63c	63.49$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	88	52.3%46 W · 42 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa49…949ebacked Under	56c	55$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.8	61	60.7%37 W · 24 L	+6.5wins	+0.11per pick	50cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x89ad…5e22backed Under	56c	33$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.48	49	49%24 W · 25 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa0b…9672backed Under	43c	32.36$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.84	98	28.6%28 W · 70 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Over	36c	31.46$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.12	1,132	17%192 W · 940 L	+2.5wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7bf2…6640backed Over	44c	30$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.8	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over	43c	26.32$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ac…e166backed Under	57c	26.32$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	187	57.2%107 W · 80 L	-8.4wins	-0.04per pick	62cpaid	-8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x96ae…89d9backed Over	44c	26$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.56	26	57.7%15 W · 11 L	+1.9wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7fa8…2e0dbacked Under	65c	25.4$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.51	137	48.9%67 W · 70 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x06b1…614cbacked Over	44c	25$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14	23	65.2%15 W · 8 L	+2.7wins	+0.12per pick	54cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Under	65c	23.08$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	610	56.1%342 W · 268 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x829f…ccfdbacked Under	65c	23.08$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	173	53.8%93 W · 80 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Magic vs. Jazz: O/U 242.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event