NBA · resolved market

Spread: Magic (-8.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17ea8417ffb379e451073b31cc79496fc3af32cb953ea3fd9724fa64f1a1da51

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Jazzof Magic, Jazz
Resolved: Dec 21, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $53,898
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $55,919

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,898 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9165…5b98backed Magic	49c	44,603$21,855 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21,854.78	252	48.4%122 W · 130 L	-5.9wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Jazz	51c	19,960$10,180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,780.4	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Jazz	51c	10,171$5,191 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,979.78	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Jazz	51c	6,706$3,420 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,286.12	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6ee…b3aabacked Magic	48c	3,602$1,713 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,712.85	362	48.9%177 W · 185 L	-6.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee14…8055backed Jazz	51c	3,000$1,530 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,470	184	53.3%98 W · 86 L	+7.9wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Jazz	51c	1,569$800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$768.81	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Jazz	53c	1,500$795 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$705	569	45.3%258 W · 311 L	-8.0wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Magic	47c	1,222$571 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$571.34	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Jazz	52c	1,200$618 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$582	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Jazz	51c	1,000$510 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$490	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb6…fa2cbacked Jazz	57c	877.28$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$377.28	218	52.8%115 W · 103 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef87…7231backed Jazz	53c	805.33$428 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$377.33	22	59.1%13 W · 9 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+11%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bd5…26ccbacked Jazz	53c	600$318 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$282	516	51%263 W · 253 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Jazz	52c	450$234 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$216	1,197	47.5%569 W · 628 L	-32.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa61f…7993backed Jazz	53c	399.99$212 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$188	617	47.8%295 W · 322 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Magic	47c	273$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.23	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Jazz	52c	190.6$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.49	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca0e…4babbacked Jazz	54c	184.48$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.58	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-2.3wins	-0.16per pick	45cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x84b8…d83abacked Magic	47c	106.38$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-3.2wins	-0.27per pick	52cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Jazz	56c	100$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44	628	48.7%306 W · 322 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Jazz	51c	100$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49	623	49.6%309 W · 314 L	+6.5wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Jazz	54c	97.14$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.68	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Jazz	53c	94.34$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.34	1,661	50.3%836 W · 825 L	-14.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Magic	45c	78.5$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.5	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e47…a7abbacked Jazz	53c	76.66$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.03	498	52.4%261 W · 237 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1ea6…b729backed Jazz	55c	72.73$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.73	32	62.5%20 W · 12 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	59cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdddb…d6a4backed Magic	49c	61.22$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-3.8wins	-0.21per pick	60cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Jazz	51c	60$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.4	331	47.4%157 W · 174 L	-6.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Jazz	52c	59$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.32	500	47.2%236 W · 264 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9270…7c9ebacked Magic	47c	58.49$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.49	114	45.6%52 W · 62 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa89e…4ab4backed Jazz	52c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	157	59.9%94 W · 63 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Jazz	51c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.6	237	53.6%127 W · 110 L	+8.6wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Jazz	51c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.6	326	49.7%162 W · 164 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Jazz	51c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.6	366	51.4%188 W · 178 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Jazz	52c	40$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.2	318	52.2%166 W · 152 L	+7.2wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Jazz	51c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.6	271	50.2%136 W · 135 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb95e…c6d6backed Jazz	52c	40$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.4	125	45.6%57 W · 68 L	-4.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5093…dee4backed Jazz	53c	40$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.8	102	55.9%57 W · 45 L	+3.0wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Jazz	52c	36.6$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.57	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Jazz	55c	29.09$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.09	1,444	58.1%839 W · 605 L	+13.5wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe98b…d3bebacked Jazz	55c	27.27$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.27	115	53%61 W · 54 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd628…c85dbacked Jazz	53c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.5	25	52%13 W · 12 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	58cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked Jazz	51c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.8	245	52.7%129 W · 116 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84fc…9db4backed Jazz	51c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.8	146	48.6%71 W · 75 L	-4.7wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4109…7e24backed Jazz	51c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.8	452	51.1%231 W · 221 L	+20.2wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1941…c47fbacked Jazz	51c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.8	131	55%72 W · 59 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cae…bf8abacked Jazz	51c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.8	153	52.3%80 W · 73 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6afd…5cb1backed Jazz	51c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.8	65	52.3%34 W · 31 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked Jazz	51c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.8	158	54.4%86 W · 72 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed Jazz	51c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.8	150	51.3%77 W · 73 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b82…2d2abacked Jazz	51c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.8	159	53.5%85 W · 74 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Jazz	51c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.8	266	48.5%129 W · 137 L	-6.0wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Magic (-8.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event