TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,708
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,983

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,708 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9e2f…ec47backed Under50c10,000$5,000 inLost-$5,00074748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over50c5,406$2,698 inWon+$2,707.849,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Under49c4,286$2,100 inLost-$2,10048546.4%225 W · 260 L-14.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over51c2,737$1,396 inWon+$1,340.951,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Over51c2,289$1,167 inWon+$1,121.611,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over52c1,442$750 inWon+$692.3165339.5%258 W · 395 L-24.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over50c1,067$533 inWon+$533.918,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over50c1,000$500 inWon+$5005,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over50c774.95$387 inWon+$387.482,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under49c639$313 inLost-$313.116,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Over47c501$235 inWon+$265.531,15747.9%554 W · 603 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under50c500$250 inLost-$2502,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8da…cad3backed Over51c402.76$205 inWon+$197.351855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2c7…bd87backed Under50c400$200 inLost-$2005952.5%31 W · 28 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6496…09d0backed Over56c400$224 inWon+$1764860.4%29 W · 19 L+6.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over35c300$105 inWon+$1953,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7aed…38cbbacked Over48c300$144 inWon+$15610652.8%56 W · 50 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Over51c204.08$104 inWon+$10085147.5%404 W · 447 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under44c150$66 inLost-$663,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9270…7c9ebacked Under53c106.38$56 inLost-$56.3811445.6%52 W · 62 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under44c90.9$40 inLost-$403,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb82d…5d1ebacked Under48c78$37 inLost-$37.449446.8%44 W · 50 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under44c59.1$26 inLost-$264,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ace…07c7backed Over51c58.82$30 inWon+$28.821631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.19per pick51cpaid-38.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under51c49.63$25 inLost-$25.311,29448.1%623 W · 671 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Over50c43.68$22 inWon+$21.8452643%226 W · 300 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over50c40$20 inWon+$202839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f7a…6563backed Under48c40$19 inLost-$19.25253.8%28 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f27…6ea7backed Under50c40$20 inLost-$2014145.4%64 W · 77 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c4e…9b6fbacked Over52c35$18 inWon+$16.84643.5%20 W · 26 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-18.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd568…655ebacked Over52c34$18 inWon+$16.323652.8%19 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over50c24$12 inWon+$121,45149.7%721 W · 730 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14ca…e072backed Over51c23$12 inWon+$11.273844.7%17 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5db0…73f1backed Under50c20$10 inLost-$105054%27 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.