TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Magic (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Jazzof Magic, Jazz
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,633
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,631

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,633 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7b23…e20fbacked Magic62c1,510$930 inLost-$930.2749938.9%194 W · 305 L-23.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Jazz38c1,182$455 inWon+$727.456,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93a2…5181backed Jazz39c421.3$164 inWon+$256.9915038%57 W · 93 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Jazz37c286.58$107 inWon+$179.929,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9270…7c9ebacked Magic60c250$150 inLost-$15011445.6%52 W · 62 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed Magic63c200$126 inLost-$12695848.7%467 W · 491 L+24.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Magic61c126.3$77 inLost-$77.223,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Jazz39c123.7$48 inWon+$75.461,29448.1%623 W · 671 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Magic33c100$33 inLost-$33.41,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Jazz39c97.69$38 inWon+$59.591,05549.9%526 W · 529 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Jazz39c75$29 inWon+$45.751,11341.6%463 W · 650 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Magic61c70.4$43 inLost-$42.92,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Magic38c50$19 inLost-$191,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Jazz62c50$31 inWon+$1963745.8%292 W · 345 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Magic63c47.67$30 inLost-$301,38954.9%762 W · 627 L+16.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa0b…9672backed Jazz35c30.66$11 inWon+$19.989828.6%28 W · 70 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Jazz38c30$11 inWon+$18.61,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Jazz38c30$11 inWon+$18.63,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Magic61c24.59$15 inLost-$1561056.1%342 W · 268 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Magic61c20$12 inLost-$12.152,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.