Olympics · resolved market
Will Mathilde Gremaud (SUI) win the gold medal for Ski Big Air - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6e9eeb6b93823f369177d4a90fbf87014842f39703d9020152a311d02b80cab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,690
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,690 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Yes | 10c | 9,480$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.79 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2e…78b1backed Yes | 1c | 2,300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed31…d9c8backed Yes | 12c | 779$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.85 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 11c | 472.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.62 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 305.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.92 | 244 | 8.2%20 W · 224 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a4…2f08backed Yes | 16c | 248.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…4dd4backed Yes | 16c | 188.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…ff9ebacked Yes | 33c | 183.06$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 30c | 176.55$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.86 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…e964backed Yes | 7c | 174.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa911…ec33backed No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed No | 71c | 121$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 23c | 112.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…380cbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Yes | 21c | 92.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…c28ebacked Yes | 31c | 61.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 23c | 59.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 78c | 44.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 12 | 100%12 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 66c | 42.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mathilde Gremaud (SUI) win the gold medal for Ski Big Air - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?this page
- Will Eileen Gu (CHN) win the gold medal for Ski Big Air - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Flora Tabanelli (ITA) win the gold medal for Ski Big Air - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Kirsty Muir (GBR) win the gold medal for Ski Big Air - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Lara Wolf (AUT) win the gold medal for Ski Big Air - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Liu Mengting (CHN) win the gold medal for Ski Big Air - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Megan Oldhamm (CAN) win the gold medal for Ski Big Air - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?Yes won
- Will Sarah Hofflin (SUI) win the gold medal for Ski Big Air - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.