Olympics · resolved market
Will Eileen Gu (CHN) win the gold medal for Ski Big Air - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7161f09d9ce87a1480d3916e244600585cb61dc3475cd85d85296c018c15a1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,419
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3bcf…e964backed No | 58c | 6,839$3,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,901.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 34c | 3,478$1,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,194.8 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed31…d9c8backed Yes | 42c | 1,816$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.65 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…1cb7backed Yes | 44c | 1,692$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…b0a0backed Yes | 44c | 1,667$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14a1…ab45backed Yes | 38c | 1,660$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…cec7backed Yes | 29c | 1,272$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Yes | 48c | 1,026$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.33 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a5…7c26backed Yes | 46c | 1,000$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 50c | 855.32$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.3 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +4.6wins | +0.51per pick | 38cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xab85…81e6backed Yes | 58c | 830.93$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c75…0f3abacked Yes | 49c | 602.24$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…4e71backed No | 53c | 550$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0395…c9edbacked No | 67c | 475.7$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 42cpaid | +157.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…cdcebacked No | 66c | 267.83$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.07 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe394…289cbacked No | 62c | 242.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.97 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Yes | 28c | 227.8$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.46 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a4…2f08backed Yes | 12c | 209.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…0970backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 30cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked No | 56c | 178.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…b0c1backed No | 47c | 170.9$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.95 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Yes | 35c | 136$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 57c | 123.45$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a68…55b1backed Yes | 42c | 119.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 45c | 115.59$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.93 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 34c | 113.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 244 | 8.2%20 W · 224 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe876…42b6backed No | 73c | 110$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed No | 47c | 109.8$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 42c | 104.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc6…c936backed Yes | 50c | 100.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2e…78b1backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…380cbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Yes | 51c | 89.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…8746backed Yes | 30c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6070…9b40backed No | 69c | 72.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc771…6f90backed Yes | 45c | 67.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fed…a1f9backed Yes | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…ff9ebacked No | 63c | 63.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3662…ca07backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…0f13backed No | 41c | 54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +111.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9f…a400backed No | 38c | 54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked Yes | 31c | 52.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb323…f505backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ac…bc7dbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x847a…2e33backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf278…c2f1backed No | 55c | 43.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4695…9d51backed Yes | 36c | 42.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 58c | 42.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…453dbacked Yes | 42c | 40.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e66…8cf9backed Yes | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 48c | 31.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae3c…f3a0backed Yes | 43c | 25.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…abaabacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…7be9backed No | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b6…0203backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2e…3c65backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Eileen Gu (CHN) win the gold medal for Ski Big Air - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?this page
- Will Flora Tabanelli (ITA) win the gold medal for Ski Big Air - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Kirsty Muir (GBR) win the gold medal for Ski Big Air - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Lara Wolf (AUT) win the gold medal for Ski Big Air - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Liu Mengting (CHN) win the gold medal for Ski Big Air - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Mathilde Gremaud (SUI) win the gold medal for Ski Big Air - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Megan Oldhamm (CAN) win the gold medal for Ski Big Air - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?Yes won
- Will Sarah Hofflin (SUI) win the gold medal for Ski Big Air - Women's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.