TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb323…f505

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
83
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: NBA, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 51 out of 100; worst Olympics at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT6749.3%33 W · 34 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 67 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.3
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanesbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.3
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.7
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$25.5
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanesbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanesbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+151.6%+$48.2
Avalanche vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+135.3%+$34.5
Canadiens vs. Hurricanesbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.2
Golden Knights vs. Avalanchebacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$51.19
Golden Knights vs. Avalanchebacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$19.19
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Canadiens vs. Sabresbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.9
Golden Knights vs. Ducksbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+106.2%+$30.89
Canadiens vs. Sabresbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.3
Wild vs. Avalanchebacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.55
Ducks vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$12
Avalanche vs. Wildbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.1
Avalanche vs. Wildbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$16.5
Ducks vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.7
Canadiens vs. Sabresbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$22.5
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+90.5%+$28.5
Wild vs. Avalanchebacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.8
Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$51.99
Wild vs. Avalanchebacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Stars vs. Wildbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.8
Showing 25 of 67 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-32.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Conor McGregor · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
Will Conor McGregor win by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.99
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Alex Pereira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.5
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Aiemann Zahabi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.5
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Gaethje · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+81.8%+$40.91
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaevbacked Du Plessis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeirabacked Lewis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT+257.7%+$135.85
All 8 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid+6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Olympics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Oct 22, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO3)backed CTBC Flying Oyster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will T1 win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$24
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+29%+$18
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.