Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa702925f40bdd48338fb8d84106df89d02f1aeb5bfddf44f8ac0477c35d3a689
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,144
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 55c | 590.87$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.45 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 15c | 430.65$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.18 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 67c | 402.16$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.98 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 68c | 295.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.67 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 60c | 255.38$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.04 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…d600backed Yes | 43c | 235$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.05 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 22c | 220.74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 57c | 205.99$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.54 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb7…d9b8backed Yes | 49c | 200$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.18 | 72 | 23.6%17 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29e9…8be2backed Yes | 43c | 199.18$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.25 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 44c | 184.38$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed No | 71c | 161.68$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.62 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 159.07$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 45c | 134.94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.03 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1b…3e49backed Yes | 43c | 129.42$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.84 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 39c | 104.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 43c | 94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 87.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 52c | 82$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed Yes | 46c | 80.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 54c | 80.16$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 45c | 73.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 58c | 72.69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 45c | 67.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 51c | 65.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…d13ebacked No | 51c | 61.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 52c | 60.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 48c | 55.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 52.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…7712backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 46.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 44c | 44.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 51c | 44.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 41c | 43.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xec34…b109backed No | 47c | 42.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 41.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 44c | 41.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 60c | 41.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce0…6606backed No | 49c | 40.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 34c | 40.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 36c | 38.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 44c | 38.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd3…69bebacked No | 54c | 36.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 45c | 36.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 58c | 36.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x841d…f056backed Yes | 45c | 36.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 50c | 34.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 52c | 33.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 58c | 32.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 43c | 31.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 51c | 31.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 51c | 30.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 50c | 29.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f9…e151backed No | 69c | 28.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x732b…c442backed No | 56c | 28.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 42c | 28.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a9…2d63backed No | 56c | 28.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 60cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 46c | 25.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 58c | 25.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 50c | 22.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 60c | 22.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 52c | 21.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 53c | 19.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 65c | 19.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 57c | 19.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.