Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69006eb73d112ebde91c40bd27b20e2451eaaf07eb93336bf169933c66607662
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,177
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,177 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cb7…d9b8backed Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.65 | 72 | 23.6%17 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 31c | 252.36$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 68c | 236.83$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.95 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 224.27$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.81 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 34c | 203.79$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.46 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 31c | 197.79$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.58 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 31c | 197.78$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.31 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…7307backed No | 76c | 172$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed No | 65c | 153.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.17 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 65c | 149$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.28 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…9907backed No | 75c | 148.18$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 65 | 67.7%44 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 132.89$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1b…3e49backed Yes | 35c | 126.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 30c | 121.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 22c | 117.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 14c | 111.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed No | 68c | 101.81$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked No | 69c | 100.09$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 36c | 94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 82.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 69c | 79.19$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 17c | 78.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd46…e514backed Yes | 29c | 78.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -5.7wins | -0.23per pick | 55cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked No | 70c | 71.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb0…2436backed Yes | 29c | 68.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed No | 73c | 68.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 27c | 66.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 33c | 65.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 63.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 62.68$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 62.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 64c | 60.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 71c | 58.2$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…0b9abacked Yes | 29c | 58.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 67c | 58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 21c | 56.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 35c | 56.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…7712backed Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 26c | 47.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 30c | 41.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 34c | 39.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9149…f2dabacked No | 70c | 36.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 28 | 85.7%24 W · 4 L | +6.5wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 75c | 35.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 31.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 66c | 30.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked No | 80c | 28.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 66c | 28.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 27.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 66c | 26.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9980…a50cbacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 76c | 24.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 66c | 22.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked No | 67c | 22.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 65c | 20.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 67c | 18.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0718…a164backed No | 67c | 18.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 66c | 18.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40b7…8a8dbacked No | 66c | 17.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…79b1backed No | 67c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…7565backed No | 66c | 17.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e8…2e62backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.