Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16dd5fe4d2f6011d11b23b261eb953e04ecedfa427a334461ae1293805dc96e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 18c | 581.49$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.19 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 432.28$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.12 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…d600backed Yes | 47c | 431.88$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.96 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 272.72$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb7…d9b8backed Yes | 38c | 214.98$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.74 | 72 | 23.6%17 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 43c | 210.87$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.54 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 25c | 203.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.59 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 67c | 185.76$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.52 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 62c | 178.23$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.8 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 138.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.16 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 120.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.91 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed No | 75c | 107.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.31 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.58 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 96$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 30c | 94.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.58 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 15c | 89.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.77 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 77c | 82.2$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.95 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 14c | 78.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.71 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 18c | 73.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.29 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x006c…154ebacked Yes | 20c | 65.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.05 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 60c | 63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…7712backed Yes | 20c | 53.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…2433backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 21c | 47.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 45.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x66f1…6df8backed No | 64c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 38.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 80c | 37.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 55c | 30.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f45…db24backed No | 77c | 30.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 28.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcff…8aa4backed Yes | 80c | 25.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 78c | 22.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…3dccbacked Yes | 78c | 20.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 73c | 20.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 59c | 19.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb968…4b8ebacked Yes | 77c | 19.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…825dbacked No | 75c | 15.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 66cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.