Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7090558d73259364de34413f879b48c882157788d37f79a40abc19e00d29c62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,983
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 8c | 157.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 37c | 141.4$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…8fcabacked No | 74c | 129.5$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.93 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 42c | 103.44$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 61c | 92.97$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 86.9$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 32c | 81.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 61c | 79.36$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 40c | 76.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 32c | 70.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…14e8backed Yes | 37c | 66.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked Yes | 37c | 66.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 36c | 61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30dd…3aa1backed Yes | 37c | 57.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…1ffabacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 61c | 48.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 45.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bea…bab9backed Yes | 63c | 43.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 47c | 40.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b3…4030backed Yes | 41c | 36.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 66c | 34.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x376c…41acbacked Yes | 31c | 32.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 44c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 31.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 26.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 64c | 23.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 49c | 21.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 21.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 17.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.