Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa70deb5a73da582b52a4c01a9b453a5d4d5a2e0aeadb5162a5b8ef2d33a2ca34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,796
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,796 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 32c | 319.88$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 257.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 30c | 185.85$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 137.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 67c | 129.97$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 71c | 122.83$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1796…c490backed No | 47c | 120.73$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.34 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 114$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 68c | 113.51$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 71c | 112.51$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 100.14$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 47c | 97.28$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 46c | 96.78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 68c | 92.79$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 64c | 91.13$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 87.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 80.13$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 77.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…559fbacked Yes | 25c | 70.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 29c | 68.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 30c | 66.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 29c | 63.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 42c | 61.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…c18cbacked No | 77c | 59.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d80…0ee3backed Yes | 31c | 54.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 69c | 52.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 42c | 49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 71c | 47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 41c | 44.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 37c | 41.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 52c | 37.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 39c | 37.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 37c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 68c | 30.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 36c | 29.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…7a24backed No | 69c | 28.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 26.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 69c | 25.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6430…fb2fbacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 62c | 24.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…0988backed No | 74c | 17.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.