Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2fdd6cface135aa6b22af563f64b161bca69d5c462d5ddc8c5d472755b005742
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,551
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,551 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1a0…c18cbacked No | 69c | 255.94$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…559fbacked Yes | 9c | 238.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.98 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 44c | 191.84$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.24 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 10c | 189.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.18 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 10c | 175.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.84 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 161.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.02 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 10c | 139.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.76 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 48c | 135.41$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.63 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 134.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 26c | 131.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.61 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 130.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.58 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 77c | 129.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 10c | 125$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 117.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 53c | 110.53$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.73 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 51c | 110$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 19c | 97.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 33c | 85.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x362e…a692backed Yes | 22c | 83.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.46 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 77c | 78.44$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.62 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 40c | 74.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.45 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…2d49backed No | 20c | 73.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 61c | 70.17$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 69.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 28c | 69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.81 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 18c | 66.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.87 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 69c | 65.81$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 30c | 48.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…1096backed No | 78c | 47.87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 47c | 43.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 38c | 42.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 75c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 74c | 28.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.