NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pistons (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa730363d3c25c3f5ea66224200e4a8174e40ddbece0c1d2f5d3fdd032f8f9b81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 76ersof Pistons, 76ers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Pistons | 51c | 30,748$15,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,681.48 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed 76ers | 49c | 20,000$9,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,200 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed 76ers | 49c | 8,000$3,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,080 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pistons | 50c | 2,869$1,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,428.08 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed 76ers | 57c | 2,521$1,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081.47 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…34dbbacked 76ers | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked 76ers | 50c | 1,587$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.18 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked 76ers | 51c | 1,022$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.57 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed 76ers | 50c | 1,000$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.71 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…270cbacked 76ers | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pistons | 43c | 947$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.58 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3002…7d71backed 76ers | 53c | 800$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Pistons | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf0…251cbacked Pistons | 48c | 520.77$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.97 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa763…709ebacked Pistons | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 198 | 45.5%90 W · 108 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b2…6d9dbacked Pistons | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked 76ers | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…6c83backed 76ers | 50c | 280$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.2 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec2…0c38backed Pistons | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…c0d4backed Pistons | 52c | 253.19$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.66 | 134 | 56.7%76 W · 58 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked 76ers | 52c | 250$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Pistons | 46c | 226$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.96 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…29acbacked 76ers | 54c | 226$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…0a5cbacked Pistons | 52c | 217.81$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.26 | 368 | 42.4%156 W · 212 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Pistons | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked 76ers | 50c | 117.24$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.62 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69c4…09a3backed 76ers | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf704…bed4backed Pistons | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 169 | 43.8%74 W · 95 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8a…b9e4backed 76ers | 59c | 77.96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x647d…3cd9backed Pistons | 46c | 75.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed 76ers | 52c | 75.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49de…873cbacked 76ers | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed 76ers | 46c | 70.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed 76ers | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 377 | 55.7%210 W · 167 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed 76ers | 49c | 57.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed 76ers | 52c | 53.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88bf…591abacked Pistons | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc228…7a7dbacked 76ers | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked 76ers | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…e9cbbacked 76ers | 50c | 26.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x895d…4970backed Pistons | 50c | 25.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaba…ba7cbacked Pistons | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -6.0wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Pistons | 49c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefd5…f95ebacked 76ers | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5acc…89e0backed 76ers | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)this page
- Pistons vs. 76ersPistons won
- Pistons vs. 76ers: 1H Moneyline76ers won
- Pistons vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Pistons vs. 76ers: O/U 231.5Under won
- Pistons vs. 76ers: O/U 232.5Under won
- Pistons vs. 76ers: O/U 233.5Under won
- Pistons vs. 76ers: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-3.5)76ers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.