UFC · resolved market
Will Song Yadong win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7545d4e72fecc6dd7f867d6bd5c058b0df229fdda8e382b94744ea3b6899337
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,205
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,258
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,205 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 55c | 1,239$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.24 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 61c | 1,011$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.88 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1043…65c1backed Yes | 47c | 638.3$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2248…cad0backed Yes | 45c | 448.22$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…719bbacked Yes | 45c | 252.52$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 56c | 123.27$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.47 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…647abacked No | 65c | 121.11$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.92 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…a55ebacked No | 62c | 114.5$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc1…4bcbbacked Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Yes | 35c | 109.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacff…3872backed Yes | 45c | 109.07$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…ea39backed Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 324 | 31.8%103 W · 221 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35b8…898abacked Yes | 45c | 98.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ed…8300backed Yes | 47c | 96.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a1…6daebacked Yes | 44c | 89.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7247…d8c4backed Yes | 45c | 86.07$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 37c | 85.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a04…2071backed Yes | 43c | 69.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf413…44febacked Yes | 45c | 65.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511d…3633backed Yes | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb146…c098backed No | 53c | 45.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68c…7ef8backed Yes | 45c | 30.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae5…8386backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd13a…c0c3backed Yes | 46c | 28.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked No | 54c | 21.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 159 | 60.4%96 W · 63 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d2…38ccbacked No | 55c | 21.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Song Yadong win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 4.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Main Card)Song Yadong won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.