MLB · resolved market
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa76cf6b1fd08a89c88a2bf2f39a6efcc44f6c580de9c4e93ce0c370b1d284b5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Kansas City Royals, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,259
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Chicago White Sox | 51c | 1,445$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.49 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Kansas City Royals | 48c | 1,183$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.1 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Kansas City Royals | 44c | 1,100$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.98 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e2…8a9bbacked Chicago White Sox | 56c | 1,043$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.98 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Kansas City Royals | 42c | 728.67$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.36 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Chicago White Sox | 54c | 567.48$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.45 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 521.56$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.49 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Kansas City Royals | 44c | 489.89$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.55 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87fa…12d0backed Chicago White Sox | 55c | 324.68$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.11 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Kansas City Royals | 57c | 251.13$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.36 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Kansas City Royals | 53c | 203.23$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.26 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Kansas City Royals | 43c | 197.92$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.68 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Kansas City Royals | 36c | 196$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Chicago White Sox | 55c | 185.75$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.59 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Kansas City Royals | 46c | 151.1$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.51 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Chicago White Sox | 55c | 141.53$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.69 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago White Sox | 55c | 100.23$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Kansas City Royals | 46c | 93.46$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Chicago White Sox | 54c | 74.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Kansas City Royals | 46c | 73.37$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Chicago White Sox | 54c | 63.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Kansas City Royals | 42c | 62.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…8451backed Kansas City Royals | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Chicago White Sox | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Kansas City Royals | 44c | 49.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Chicago White Sox | 54c | 48.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Kansas City Royals | 41c | 45.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Chicago White Sox | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Chicago White Sox | 49c | 35.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Kansas City Royals | 45c | 34.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77d4…3983backed Chicago White Sox | 53c | 30.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Chicago White Sox | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Kansas City Royals | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Chicago White Sox | 55c | 24.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Chicago White Sox | 56c | 24.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Chicago White Sox | 76c | 23.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Kansas City Royals | 46c | 23.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Chicago White Sox | 48c | 22.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City RoyalsChicago White Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 13.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City RoyalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.