NHL · resolved market
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7a2e13ffa2c8b633ecfb75b86c7cff01477e2c94a878d2b0238f7b22371bcf6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Avalancheof Avalanche, Golden Knights
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,264
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Golden Knights | 68c | 3,458$2,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,347.34 | 412 | 46.4%191 W · 221 L | -24.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…384dbacked Golden Knights | 69c | 1,915$1,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,321.35 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda2d…4c45backed Golden Knights | 69c | 1,878$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,295.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…6793backed Golden Knights | 69c | 1,866$1,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,287.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Avalanche | 35c | 1,736$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,131.24 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Avalanche | 31c | 1,702$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.69 | 566 | 49.5%280 W · 286 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ee…d891backed Golden Knights | 69c | 1,434$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa201…c304backed Avalanche | 31c | 1,324$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6499…b66cbacked Golden Knights | 69c | 1,120$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x193d…5848backed Avalanche | 31c | 1,025$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe678…4c0cbacked Avalanche | 32c | 1,023$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fce…e9afbacked Avalanche | 31c | 965$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9673…9482backed Avalanche | 31c | 963$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…d7cabacked Avalanche | 32c | 953$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.04 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +53%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec9…6287backed Avalanche | 31c | 952$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.88 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…bd57backed Avalanche | 31c | 942$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc93…f732backed Avalanche | 31c | 936$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2c…3770backed Golden Knights | 69c | 936$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…f17bbacked Avalanche | 31c | 936$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5381…f063backed Avalanche | 31c | 901$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…cd2fbacked Golden Knights | 68c | 890$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Golden Knights | 65c | 880.01$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.01 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1761…31cbbacked Avalanche | 31c | 863$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f6…f970backed Avalanche | 31c | 834$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b9…2d7bbacked Golden Knights | 69c | 826$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb850…b580backed Golden Knights | 69c | 768$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3d…d45dbacked Golden Knights | 68c | 705.57$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…b7efbacked Avalanche | 31c | 698$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34a0…5b83backed Golden Knights | 69c | 596$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Avalanche | 31c | 533.91$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.4 | 236 | 53.8%127 W · 109 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9161…622ebacked Avalanche | 33c | 377$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.59 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Golden Knights | 67c | 377$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.59 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Golden Knights | 69c | 358$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.02 | 201 | 47.3%95 W · 106 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Golden Knights | 64c | 308$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.12 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Avalanche | 31c | 278$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.82 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Golden Knights | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f4…4dfbbacked Avalanche | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefcf…2a46backed Avalanche | 31c | 80$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Avalanche | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Golden Knights | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd895…3d8fbacked Golden Knights | 71c | 21.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)this page
- Avalanche vs. Golden KnightsAvalanche won
- Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Avalanche won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.