NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Grizzlies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7bb38f62bdfde57843dd52901d24a4197871189cc55e47aa7fa0373a9b8f0b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grizzliesof Magic, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Magic | 53c | 9,843$5,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,204.38 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Grizzlies | 47c | 8,602$4,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,522.35 | 476 | 56.5%269 W · 207 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Magic | 1c | 6,321$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.67 | 615 | 32.2%198 W · 417 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Magic | 55c | 2,400$1,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,331.36 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13a6…ee95backed Magic | 1c | 2,075$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…4952backed Grizzlies | 51c | 1,455$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Magic | 50c | 1,155$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.29 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -10.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Magic | 49c | 1,047$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.54 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Grizzlies | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Grizzlies | 75c | 650.42$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.43 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c8…e7acbacked Grizzlies | 50c | 399.52$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.76 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda9e…9ac7backed Magic | 50c | 334.18$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Grizzlies | 47c | 313.46$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.13 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked Grizzlies | 47c | 301.61$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.85 | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Magic | 54c | 222$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.88 | 202 | 45.5%92 W · 110 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Grizzlies | 49c | 202.98$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.52 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6807…391ebacked Magic | 53c | 202.04$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.04 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b9…f457backed Magic | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe424…8874backed Grizzlies | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Grizzlies | 72c | 190.2$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.25 | 265 | 47.9%127 W · 138 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd123…4f07backed Magic | 29c | 178.95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Magic | 51c | 140$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…3d1bbacked Magic | 55c | 129.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354b…e49cbacked Grizzlies | 70c | 127.33$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…12a3backed Grizzlies | 43c | 119.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.39 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Grizzlies | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -10.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1702…2eeabacked Grizzlies | 48c | 93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c79…15dbbacked Grizzlies | 52c | 86.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…0e56backed Grizzlies | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…446cbacked Magic | 48c | 67.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…c635backed Grizzlies | 44c | 67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…3850backed Magic | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 243 | 36.2%88 W · 155 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc63d…a322backed Magic | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5380…28debacked Magic | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 148 | 52.7%78 W · 70 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72db…7ad2backed Magic | 52c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0190…c434backed Magic | 60c | 41.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x207a…6fecbacked Magic | 51c | 41.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x484c…017ebacked Magic | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27cc…a4efbacked Magic | 27c | 38.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9848…e696backed Magic | 55c | 27.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90ce…fd5bbacked Grizzlies | 50c | 26.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed Magic | 53c | 26.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…b823backed Magic | 53c | 25.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a4…7770backed Magic | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c0…de1cbacked Grizzlies | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea69…26dabacked Magic | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…1d4dbacked Magic | 56c | 20.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44a6…4916backed Magic | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…2004backed Magic | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5947…1805backed Magic | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x49e9…9353backed Magic | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.