MLB · resolved market
Cubs vs. Padres Series Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7cfd4744f2bb583eb3f6006264dc4a59c6d7fc4db5c528888f7a3223d68e0f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cubsof Cubs, Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,261
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,261 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Cubs | 54c | 22,216$11,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,283.99 | 114 | 56.1%64 W · 50 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Padres | 47c | 20,326$9,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,553.2 | 482 | 54.4%262 W · 220 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…5432backed Cubs | 53c | 10,500$5,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,976 | 130 | 65.4%85 W · 45 L | +7.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Padres | 47c | 10,000$4,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,699.99 | 342 | 45%154 W · 188 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Padres | 47c | 8,000$3,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,790 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4762…ba70backed Cubs | 53c | 6,630$3,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,116.25 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Padres | 50c | 5,028$2,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,514.02 | 358 | 54.5%195 W · 163 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Padres | 47c | 3,776$1,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,785.33 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b1…5a3fbacked Cubs | 53c | 3,320$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,570.03 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Cubs | 53c | 3,187$1,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,502.39 | 1,381 | 48.1%664 W · 717 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Padres | 26c | 2,166$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.48 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Padres | 48c | 2,165$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.27 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Cubs | 50c | 1,792$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.22 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36e8…1f11backed Padres | 26c | 1,736$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Cubs | 75c | 1,529$1,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.18 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Cubs | 54c | 1,445$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.37 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Padres | 48c | 1,300$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Padres | 48c | 1,300$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -9.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Padres | 46c | 1,195$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.87 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…f499backed Padres | 27c | 1,050$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +45%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4851…1e94backed Padres | 25c | 410$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cubs | 51c | 264.14$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.43 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Padres | 47c | 250$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Cubs | 52c | 200.1$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.05 | 162 | 48.8%79 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Padres | 35c | 175$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Padres | 48c | 149.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Cubs | 49c | 137.69$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.8 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…cb45backed Cubs | 59c | 98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac8c…415cbacked Cubs | 54c | 88$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked Cubs | 72c | 81.65$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 117 | 59%69 W · 48 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50ac…d15ebacked Padres | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Padres | 45c | 64.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 103 | 28.2%29 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…f9bebacked Padres | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Padres | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da7…2e56backed Cubs | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe97d…dcf6backed Cubs | 76c | 18.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b3…501dbacked Cubs | 75c | 14.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7a…6f1bbacked Cubs | 76c | 14.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.