Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Shang (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7efe99c8cb8b4f48c7d8d333a4539fd2616592c3fab90a5fde080b7ddc093ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Medvedevof Medvedev, Shang
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Shang | 36c | 4,949$1,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,774.95 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Medvedev | 64c | 4,251$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,550.52 | 369 | 68%251 W · 118 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Medvedev | 63c | 2,371$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.39 | 1,267 | 56.6%717 W · 550 L | -18.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe500…4b37backed Medvedev | 60c | 1,173$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.75 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Shang | 39c | 1,120$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.04 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Shang | 39c | 1,091$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.52 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Shang | 40c | 674.51$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.41 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3d…7a79backed Medvedev | 62c | 587.19$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.13 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Shang | 40c | 414.03$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.61 | 320 | 31.3%100 W · 220 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Shang | 37c | 253.57$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.07 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Medvedev | 59c | 211.57$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.57 | 389 | 51.9%202 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…b6dcbacked Medvedev | 60c | 124.82$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 543 | 48.1%261 W · 282 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Shang | 40c | 106$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.39 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb331…4f70backed Shang | 39c | 99.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9e…7505backed Medvedev | 75c | 76.08$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 130 | 52.3%68 W · 62 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22c1…0df7backed Shang | 40c | 74.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf303…7ee6backed Medvedev | 60c | 66.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 130 | 66.9%87 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…3a2abacked Shang | 38c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Shang | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Shang | 38c | 52.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Medvedev | 57c | 51.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 584 | 38.2%223 W · 361 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c52…1d6ebacked Medvedev | 60c | 50.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…58a5backed Shang | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 180 | 20.6%37 W · 143 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Shang | 41c | 35.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebcb…dd4bbacked Medvedev | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Medvedev | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 957 | 42.1%403 W · 554 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Medvedev | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27e8…893bbacked Medvedev | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed Shang | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb672…456fbacked Medvedev | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Medvedev | 60c | 23.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5920…b787backed Shang | 49c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc5…a45bbacked Medvedev | 78c | 21.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f9…0975backed Shang | 64c | 16.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Shang (+1.5)this page
- Dubai Tennis Championships: Daniil Medvedev vs Juncheng ShangMedvedev won
- Medvedev vs. Shang: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.