CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: STATE vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7fb6b8f7dc689c2919125f042f44343067cc752e0847d7813991b5e2091c01f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- STATEof STATE, Bebop
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,035
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,035 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Bebop | 24c | 3,738$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.55 | 227 | 54.2%123 W · 104 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f8…dc70backed STATE | 50c | 3,081$1,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,554.15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3db4…d69bbacked Bebop | 50c | 1,901$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.57 | 750 | 56.8%426 W · 324 L | +47.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked Bebop | 46c | 1,720$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783 | 69 | 68.1%47 W · 22 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Bebop | 50c | 1,562$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.94 | 655 | 46.9%307 W · 348 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bebop | 55c | 1,405$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.98 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Bebop | 5c | 1,395$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.67 | 1,304 | 26.5%345 W · 959 L | -89.4wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Bebop | 51c | 1,120$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.79 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8087backed STATE | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -64%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ac…2a18backed Bebop | 48c | 985.02$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.81 | 251 | 47.8%120 W · 131 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d6…54e8backed STATE | 54c | 867.63$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.2 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e80…f694backed STATE | 51c | 811.11$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.29 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Bebop | 61c | 685.62$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.08 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked STATE | 46c | 680.94$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.58 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked STATE | 56c | 662.03$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.12 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed STATE | 26c | 650.01$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.37 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Bebop | 55c | 560.64$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.54 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked STATE | 47c | 557.96$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.12 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Bebop | 54c | 544.25$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.26 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b6…c7dbbacked Bebop | 58c | 484.95$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.27 | 362 | 53.3%193 W · 169 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed STATE | 57c | 471.6$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.58 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe36f…1ef4backed STATE | 79c | 409.49$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21df…fdbcbacked STATE | 51c | 372.74$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.64 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked STATE | 63c | 309.42$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.29 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked STATE | 47c | 273.77$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.2 | 389 | 42.4%165 W · 224 L | -15.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked STATE | 58c | 239.79$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.51 | 543 | 46.2%251 W · 292 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked STATE | 55c | 236.43$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.79 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d28…87b5backed STATE | 48c | 220.58$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.95 | 84 | 75%63 W · 21 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked STATE | 45c | 199.46$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.19 | 489 | 48.7%238 W · 251 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…fc02backed STATE | 52c | 185.74$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 559 | 50.3%281 W · 278 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed STATE | 56c | 183.02$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.79 | 292 | 44.5%130 W · 162 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa900…5acebacked Bebop | 18c | 165.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 159 | 35.2%56 W · 103 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…07e5backed Bebop | 28c | 125.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 324 | 43.5%141 W · 183 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…b98abacked STATE | 40c | 120$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed STATE | 54c | 118.18$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 1,109 | 50.5%560 W · 549 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Bebop | 40c | 110$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 644 | 39.8%256 W · 388 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf8…1e82backed Bebop | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeee8…1038backed STATE | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Bebop | 54c | 98.51$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.15 | 956 | 42.6%407 W · 549 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Bebop | 19c | 97.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Bebop | 60c | 94.54$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.07 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Bebop | 41c | 90.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe7be…908dbacked STATE | 37c | 80.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed STATE | 40c | 77.83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.76 | 1,547 | 33.9%524 W · 1,023 L | -73.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Bebop | 42c | 75.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 313 | 28.4%89 W · 224 L | -21.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed STATE | 50c | 68.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 623 | 50.9%317 W · 306 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5639…90fbbacked Bebop | 49c | 61.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Bebop | 39c | 60.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 452 | 24.3%110 W · 342 L | -52.4wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x347d…098abacked STATE | 69c | 58.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Bebop | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 295 | 55.3%163 W · 132 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd866…55e0backed STATE | 53c | 46.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 493 | 76.1%375 W · 118 L | +96.8wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4e…3704backed STATE | 37c | 40.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Bebop | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 368 | 45.9%169 W · 199 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Bebop | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 579 | 35.1%203 W · 376 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fd…7fefbacked STATE | 54c | 36.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…7745backed Bebop | 80c | 33.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99be…3622backed STATE | 34c | 33.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Bebop | 72c | 30.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 470 | 53.2%250 W · 220 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Bebop | 50c | 29.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Bebop | 50c | 29.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 700 | 36.1%253 W · 447 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd711…749cbacked Bebop | 49c | 29.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed STATE | 51c | 28.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 958 | 49.8%477 W · 481 L | -17.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked STATE | 53c | 24.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 388 | 58.2%226 W · 162 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Bebop | 52c | 21.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76b5…4268backed Bebop | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: STATE vs Bebop - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: STATE vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Group StageSTATE won
- Counter-Strike: STATE vs Bebop - Map 2 WinnerBebop won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.