Fifa International · resolved market
Armenia vs. Belarus: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa814d63d56dbb575aeb6b49a6a331d259b8d23966e4f9f5aedf41e440bf5dd05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 17c | 1,249$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.43 | 116 | 32.8%38 W · 78 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 70c | 715.35$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.35 | 202 | 62.4%126 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 26c | 501.92$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 454 | 28%127 W · 327 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 74c | 445.92$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.94 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 42c | 354.81$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 6c | 283.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 42c | 240.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88d3…00dbbacked Under | 80c | 231.89$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 225.96$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.28 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 20c | 200.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 260 | 47.3%123 W · 137 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 35c | 187.75$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.16 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 39c | 179.95$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.8 | 293 | 43%126 W · 167 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 76c | 141.88$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 351 | 50.7%178 W · 173 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 76c | 132$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 328 | 55.8%183 W · 145 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 27c | 120.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 289 | 64.4%186 W · 103 L | +42.6wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Over | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 104 | 51.9%54 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 19c | 105.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 24c | 105$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 112 | 21.4%24 W · 88 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bc…1523backed Over | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 27c | 92.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 258 | 65.9%170 W · 88 L | +40.1wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 58c | 81.48$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.22 | 760 | 48.7%370 W · 390 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 76c | 81$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 1,688 | 54.4%918 W · 770 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26e8…1c01backed Under | 77c | 73.08$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…b6c7backed Over | 22c | 72.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -40%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Under | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 187 | 69.5%130 W · 57 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 76c | 55.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 1,262 | 47.5%600 W · 662 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 27c | 55.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 356 | 58.7%209 W · 147 L | +35.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +28%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 363 | 29.8%108 W · 255 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 481 | 47.8%230 W · 251 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6254…892fbacked Under | 67c | 45.96$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Under | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…db9fbacked Over | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -48%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 41c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Under | 78c | 20.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ca…e04dbacked Under | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 59 | 72.9%43 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed2b…e467backed Under | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 75c | 17.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 436 | 53.7%234 W · 202 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Armenia vs. Belarus: O/U 3.5this page
- Armenia vs. Belarus: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Armenia vs. Belarus: O/U 1.5Over won
- Armenia vs. Belarus: O/U 2.5Over won
- Armenia vs. Belarus: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Armenia (-2.5)Belarus won
- Spread: Belarus (-1.5)Armenia won
- Spread: Belarus (-2.5)Armenia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.