Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C on January 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa818c2971b800620cd3f0d54b92f442a9711caf5bd637814e6ed42e10cbe507c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,449
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,449 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb9c1…2348backed No | 43c | 700.48$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1005…a843backed Yes | 71c | 506.68$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.36 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -68%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8e…6284backed No | 5c | 465.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…1948backed Yes | 58c | 294.99$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.85 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed No | 5c | 255$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a89…0e5dbacked Yes | 79c | 200.68$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 8c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 40c | 162.15$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.96 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…a545backed Yes | 66c | 151.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f7…761ebacked Yes | 55c | 149.97$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 32c | 141.75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 57c | 135.21$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.14 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 71c | 120$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 43c | 109.04$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 66c | 86.33$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 35c | 86.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked No | 30c | 82.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 63c | 81.64$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…4162backed No | 28c | 76.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 59c | 72.02$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa33…1ea9backed Yes | 77c | 70.28$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf358…3da7backed Yes | 69c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bdf…d53ebacked Yes | 40c | 59.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 63c | 47.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…d8d4backed Yes | 70c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 34c | 41.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f8…503abacked Yes | 38c | 34.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 112 | 28.6%32 W · 80 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c7…2556backed Yes | 64c | 32.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35b2…3c46backed Yes | 67c | 31.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…465fbacked Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1866…91a7backed Yes | 67c | 21.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb603…a587backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbdf…4981backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C on January 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 2°C or below on January 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 3°C on January 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on January 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C or higher on January 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.