MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Angels
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa82ca8628ad0737a0bc82ea0aa7344683983c4b381ea0ff8c742b8f158963493
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Angelsof Cleveland Guardians, Los Angeles Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,394 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 52c | 2,263$1,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,075.72 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 1,277$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.18 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 1,000$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.2 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 999.98$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.19 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 777.24$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.92 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 507.2$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.5 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Los Angeles Angels | 51c | 416$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.84 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 287$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.56 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Los Angeles Angels | 52c | 270$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.38 | 134 | 42.5%57 W · 77 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 221.27$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.57 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed Cleveland Guardians | 10c | 198.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Cleveland Guardians | 51c | 176.47$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -40%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 176.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.15 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Cleveland Guardians | 51c | 156.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 141$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.04 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Los Angeles Angels | 49c | 140.01$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.41 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 139$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.45 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Los Angeles Angels | 50c | 124.42$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.21 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…1f06backed Los Angeles Angels | 50c | 103.6$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71a…f135backed Los Angeles Angels | 53c | 85.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Los Angeles Angels | 52c | 76.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22be…e36ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 63.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Los Angeles Angels | 50c | 59.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4c…dc70backed Los Angeles Angels | 52c | 56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff47…9ad4backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 51c | 47.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 312 | 50%156 W · 156 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 46.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed Los Angeles Angels | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Los Angeles Angels | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc0…8f18backed Los Angeles Angels | 49c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…176bbacked Los Angeles Angels | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae1…92f2backed Cleveland Guardians | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Los Angeles Angels | 70c | 23.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1db…9877backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.