Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: North Dakota State Bison (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa82f374cc0edbe6c811b52cc96c5bc7b85e4b2299a7350acdf0143591ee520fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Denver Pioneersof North Dakota State Bison, Denver Pioneers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Denver Pioneers | 48c | 4,222$2,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,202.81 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed North Dakota State Bison | 54c | 4,007$2,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,163.84 | 746 | 49.2%367 W · 379 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Denver Pioneers | 46c | 4,000$1,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,160 | 146 | 47.9%70 W · 76 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked North Dakota State Bison | 54c | 3,706$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 572 | 48.1%275 W · 297 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed North Dakota State Bison | 53c | 999.98$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.99 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked North Dakota State Bison | 51c | 568.46$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.55 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Denver Pioneers | 48c | 379$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.08 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Denver Pioneers | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Denver Pioneers | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +60%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf48e…1e01backed Denver Pioneers | 47c | 130.27$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.04 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Denver Pioneers | 48c | 121.22$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.98 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Denver Pioneers | 46c | 109.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.93 | 505 | 46.9%237 W · 268 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed North Dakota State Bison | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 383 | 45.4%174 W · 209 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Denver Pioneers | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed North Dakota State Bison | 52c | 96.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed North Dakota State Bison | 52c | 91$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 682 | 54.3%370 W · 312 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Denver Pioneers | 47c | 83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Denver Pioneers | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 198 | 51.5%102 W · 96 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed North Dakota State Bison | 54c | 69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…ecbfbacked Denver Pioneers | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Denver Pioneers | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 145 | 53.1%77 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed North Dakota State Bison | 50c | 47.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 974 | 47.9%467 W · 507 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…e949backed Denver Pioneers | 47c | 39.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…569fbacked Denver Pioneers | 47c | 39.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…d4f2backed North Dakota State Bison | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 217 | 46.1%100 W · 117 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Denver Pioneers | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: North Dakota State Bison (-11.5)this page
- Denver Pioneers vs. North Dakota State BisonDenver Pioneers won
- Denver Pioneers vs. North Dakota State Bison: O/U 156.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.