Champions League · resolved market
Will RB Salzburg vs. Al Hilal end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa850de96dcc5505482fe076206b377e0e7b013b42838bc5ed4c17a1045f4b7ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,718
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 20c | 17,324$3,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,415.02 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…0d4ebacked Yes | 40c | 3,564$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,124.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 64c | 2,751$1,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,760.55 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Yes | 54c | 2,233$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.96 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | -8.3wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…f137backed Yes | 62c | 2,000$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.09 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 76c | 1,292$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.67 | 285 | 43.9%125 W · 160 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 40c | 940.94$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.64 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 27c | 800$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585 | 219 | 38.4%84 W · 135 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca0…140ebacked Yes | 24c | 687.5$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.5 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd59…c3a5backed Yes | 24c | 583.33$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.33 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 75c | 522$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.5 | 306 | 57.5%176 W · 130 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ef…b4d9backed Yes | 29c | 341.38$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.38 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…5981backed Yes | 24c | 340$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.4 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Yes | 30c | 334.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.34 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c0…21febacked No | 41c | 308.27$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4541…b128backed Yes | 68c | 220.59$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d6…0062backed Yes | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.15 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b68…795bbacked Yes | 29c | 132.96$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.39 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26ff…8ed7backed No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.42per pick | 75cpaid | -55%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Yes | 23c | 122.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.58 | 187 | 58.8%110 W · 77 L | +18.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd469…6255backed Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.38 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0c…04cbbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…f540backed Yes | 29c | 90.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.31 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 76c | 87.68$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.63 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 73c | 79.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.39 | 449 | 55.7%250 W · 199 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd18…a458backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 57c | 54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 389 | 35.2%137 W · 252 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…d0a3backed No | 30c | 51.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x568b…983abacked No | 44c | 50.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…1f3cbacked Yes | 25c | 47.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…05b2backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 73c | 36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 469 | 56.5%265 W · 204 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20f7…635ebacked Yes | 49c | 24.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 67cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…587bbacked No | 75c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.3wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa33f…fedbbacked No | 71c | 20.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 383 | 56.7%217 W · 166 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 77c | 17.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked Yes | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will RB Salzburg vs. Al Hilal end in a draw?this page
- Will Al Hilal beat RB Salzburg?No won
- Will RB Salzburg beat Al Hilal?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.