NHL · resolved market
Jets vs. Bruins: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8595db0adae1cd9c1e0a96de4d2c9a673405537fe6ec4ea239d9bf635b5df4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,197 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bec…220abacked Over | 77c | 2,200$1,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4f…1afdbacked Over | 77c | 2,000$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f0…ff87backed Over | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 19c | 361.17$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.62 | 326 | 50%163 W · 163 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbd…1c65backed Under | 24c | 290$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 69c | 287.68$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.22 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 38c | 277.49$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.81 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c2…c1e6backed Under | 24c | 277$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Over | 62c | 247.39$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.35 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d98…eecebacked Under | 24c | 244$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce5…fe22backed Under | 24c | 239$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e8…cf6fbacked Over | 76c | 207$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52bf…840fbacked Over | 76c | 198$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e3…59d8backed Over | 76c | 190$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4162…31eebacked Over | 76c | 189$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd31e…f6b9backed Under | 24c | 189$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…9e27backed Over | 76c | 185$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…941ebacked Under | 24c | 160$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Under | 26c | 157.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…5a39backed Over | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…cde5backed Over | 76c | 146$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x577b…1be3backed Over | 76c | 134$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 73c | 121.22$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.91 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 16c | 110.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Under | 26c | 105$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 61c | 85.26$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 38c | 74.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 63c | 71.19$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 61c | 71.03$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 59c | 62.63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 38c | 51.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 64c | 47.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 333 | 63.7%212 W · 121 L | +44.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 39c | 45.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 336 | 47.9%161 W · 175 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 60c | 31.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5090…ccb2backed Over | 78c | 27.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -6.3wins | -0.35per pick | 63cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Over | 77c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 73c | 19.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 283 | 40.3%114 W · 169 L | -24.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jets vs. Bruins: O/U 4.5this page
- Jets vs. BruinsBruins won
- Jets vs. Bruins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Jets vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Jets vs. Bruins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Bruins (-1.5)Bruins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.