Mls · resolved market
Will St. Louis City SC vs. New England Revolution end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa860b584a202ae13e4458a343eba6943f9388a138e8546f99dac3c73aee5c012
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,439 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 26c | 1,833$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.74 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973b…a912backed No | 74c | 1,161$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.81 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbc…8a18backed No | 74c | 664$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.64 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x960e…77d6backed No | 74c | 565$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.9 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 22c | 530.5$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.38 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 71c | 275.78$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.88 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1160…b054backed Yes | 20c | 226.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 80c | 193.1$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 29c | 188.21$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 20c | 182$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 74c | 155.17$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 27c | 131.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed Yes | 21c | 127.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…8e95backed Yes | 29c | 113.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 25c | 100.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 77c | 77.13$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5d24…9c89backed No | 79c | 74.57$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 26c | 68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 76c | 59.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…9f10backed No | 70c | 56.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 23c | 56.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8510…e41ebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 76c | 46.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 77c | 40.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e0…776ebacked Yes | 27c | 37.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c5…b613backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0f47…31d8backed Yes | 34c | 31.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b7…fefdbacked No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 69cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 125 | 71.2%89 W · 36 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will St. Louis City SC vs. New England Revolution end in a draw?this page
- Will New England Revolution win on 2026-03-21?No won
- Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-03-21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.